The precision of subjective data and the explanatory power of economic models
The precision of subjective data and the explanatory power of economic models
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jeconom.2017.06.017
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发表时间：
2017-10-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Von Gaudecker, Hans-Martin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Drerup, Tilman;Enke, Benjamin;Von Gaudecker, Hans-Martin
主观预期在许多经济模型中都是重要的基本要素，但对其的直接测量往往产生不精确和不一致的数据。这在以前被视为纯粹的测量误差问题。相比之下，本文认为这些数据的个人水平精度可能反映了潜在决策过程的结构。我们对为此目的专门收集的数据估计了半参数双指数模型，并表明当个人提供错误的信念陈述时，股票市场参与决策在经济模型原语中表现出很小的变化。相比之下，对于那些报告了精确预期指标的个人来说，信念和风险偏好预示着他们在股市参与方面的强烈变化。(C) 2017 Elsevier B.V.版权所有
Subjective expectations are important primitives in many economic models, yet their direct measurement often yields imprecise and inconsistent data. This has previously been treated as a pure measurement error problem. In contrast, this paper argues that the individual-level precision of such data may reflect the structure of the underlying decision process. We estimate a semiparametric double index model on data specifically collected for this purpose and show that stock market participation decisions exhibit little variation in economic model primitives when individuals provide error-ridden belief statements. In contrast, beliefs and risk preferences predict strong variation in stock market participation for individuals who report precise expectations measures. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.