Early snowmelt projected to cause population decline in a subalpine plant
Early snowmelt projected to cause population decline in a subalpine plant
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1820096116
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发表时间：
2019-06-25
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Campbell, Diane R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Campbell, Diane R.
气候变化如何影响植物种群动态尚不清楚，因为很少有植物研究测量过生命率对气候变量的响应，也很少对其对种群增长的影响进行建模。本研究利用25年的种群统计数据，分析了一种亚高山植物的存活、生长和繁殖力对春季融雪日期的响应。繁殖力通过种子产量（超过15年的数据）进行估算，还进一步细分为花朵数量、座果率、单果种子数以及种子免受捕食的情况。尽管融雪时间对花朵数量没有明显影响，但在融雪较晚的年份，植物产生的种子更多。前一年融雪较早会降低植物的存活率和开花概率。基于种群统计模型，随着气候变暖融雪提前，预计会导致种群负增长，这尤其受到幼苗建成和种子产量变化的推动。这些结果为气候变化如何影响植物种群动态提供了一个罕见的实例。此外，它们还表明，即使没有出现更常报道的直观迹象，比如融雪较早年份开花提前或花朵数量减少，气候变化也可能对种群产生重大影响。
How climate change influences the dynamics of plant populations is not well understood, as few plant studies have measured responses of vital rates to climatic variables and modeled the impact on population growth. The present study used 25 y of demographic data to analyze how survival, growth, and fecundity respond to date of spring snowmelt for a subalpine plant. Fecundity was estimated by seed production (over 15 y) and also divided into flower number, fruit set, seeds per fruit, and escape from seed predation. Despite no apparent effects on flower number, plants produced more seeds in years with later snowmelt. Survival and probability of flowering were reduced by early snowmelt in the previous year. Based on demographic models, earlier snowmelt with warming is expected to lead to negative population growth, driven especially by changes in seedling establishment and seed production. These results provide a rare example of how climate change is expected to influence the dynamics of a plant population. They furthermore illustrate the potential for strong population impacts even in the absence of more commonly reported visual signs, such as earlier blooming or reduced floral display in early melting years.