Contribution of climate change and rising CO2 to terrestrial carbon balance in East Asia: A multi-model analysis
Contribution of climate change and rising CO2 to terrestrial carbon balance in East Asia: A multi-model analysis
复制标题
气候变化和二氧化碳上升对东亚陆地碳平衡的贡献：多模型分析
DOI：
10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.10.014
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发表时间：
2011-02-01
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Woodward, Ian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Piao, Shilong;Ciais, Philippe;Woodward, Ian
本研究利用3个基于过程的陆地生态系统模型（lundd - pots坦- jena动态全球植被模型- LPJ-DGVM、动态生态系统组织碳和水文模型- ORCHIDEE、Sheffield模型- SDGVM），研究了东亚地区生态系统净初级生产力（NPP）和净生态系统生产力（NEP）对气候变化和大气CO2上升的历史响应。结果表明，在1901 - 2002年间，模拟的NPP显著增加了5.5-8.5 Tg C /年（-1）（15-20%的增长）。这种NPP的增加导致陆地累积碳储量增加了约5-11 Pg C，其中约50-70%的总碳汇位于植被生物量中。我们的模拟结果还表明，20世纪40-60%的累积碳吸收归功于1980-2002年期间。虽然所有模式在大陆尺度上都倾向于认为东亚在20世纪80年代和90年代扮演了净C汇的角色（0.14-0.18 Pg C yr(-1)），但不同模式间的NEP趋势不同。LPJ和ORCHIDEE估计1980 - 2002年NEP有轻微但不显著的下降（P < 0.05），而SDGVM估计NEP以0.005 Pg C /年（-2）的速率有统计学意义的显著增加（P < 0.05）
In this study, we use three process-based terrestrial ecosystem models (Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model - LPJ-DGVM; ORganizing Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems - ORCHIDEE; Sheffield model - SDGVM) to investigate the historical response of ecosystem Net Primary Productivity (NPP) and Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP) over East Asia to climate change and rising atmospheric CO2. The results suggest that between 1901 and 2002, the modeled NPP has significantly increased by 5.5-8.5 Tg C yr(-1) (15-20% growth). Such increase in NPP has caused an increased cumulated terrestrial C storage by about 5-11 Pg C. About 50-70% fraction of this total C sink is located in vegetation biomass. Our modeling results also suggest that 40-60% of the accumulate C uptake of the 20th century is credited to the period of 1980-2002. Although all models tend to agree at the continental scale that East Asia played a role of net C sink (0.14-0.18 Pg C yr(-1)) during 1980s and 1990s, the trends of NEP are different among the models. Both LPJ and ORCHIDEE estimate a slight but insignificant NEP decrease from 1980 to 2002 (P>0.05), while SDGVM estimates a statistically significant increase in NEP at a rate of 0.005 Pg C yr(-2) (P