Risk analysis for oil & gas pipelines: A sustainability assessment approach using fuzzy based bow-tie analysis
Risk analysis for oil & gas pipelines: A sustainability assessment approach using fuzzy based bow-tie analysis
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jlp.2011.12.007
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发表时间：
2012-05-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Tesfamariam, Solomon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shahriar, Anjuman;Sadiq, Rehan;Tesfamariam, Solomon
世界各地每天消耗大量的石油和天然气（O&G），这些石油和天然气主要通过管道运输和分配。仅在加拿大，O&G管道总长度约为10万公里，是世界第三大管道。这些管道的完整性是O&G公司，顾问，政府机构，消费者和其他利益相关者的主要利益，因为在系统故障的情况下会产生不利后果和严重的经济损失。故障树分析（ETA）和事件树分析（ETA）是用于执行风险分析的两种图形技术，其中ETA表示原因（可能性），ETA表示故障事件的后果。“蝴蝶结”是一种集成故障树（左侧）和事件树（右侧）的方法，在一个公共平台上表示原因、威胁（危险）和后果。传统的“蝴蝶结”方法无法描述由于假设不同风险事件之间相互独立而产生的模型不确定性。为了处理数据的模糊性，本文采用模糊逻辑推导故障树中基本事件的模糊概率（似然），并估计输出事件后果的模糊概率（似然）。该研究还探讨了各种因素之间的相互依赖性可能会影响分析结果，并引入模糊效用值（FUV）进行风险评估的天然气管道使用三重底线（TBL）的可持续性标准，即社会，环境和经济后果。本研究旨在帮助输配管道公司的业主在风险管理和决策中考虑管道故障可能产生的多维后果。研究结果可以帮助专业人员决定是否以及在哪里采取预防或纠正措施，并帮助在风险管理过程中做出明智的决策。一个简单的例子来证明所提出的方法。(c)2011爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
Vast amounts of oil & gas (O&G) are consumed around the world everyday that are mainly transported and distributed through pipelines. Only in Canada, the total length of O&G pipelines is approximately 100,000 km, which is the third largest in the world. Integrity of these pipelines is of primary interest to O&G companies, consultants, governmental agencies, consumers and other stakeholder due to adverse consequences and heavy financial losses in case of system failure. Fault tree analysis (ETA) and event tree analysis (ETA) are two graphical techniques used to perform risk analysis, where ETA represents causes (likelihood) and ETA represents consequences of a failure event. 'Bow-tie' is an approach that integrates a fault tree (on the left side) and an event tree (on the right side) to represent causes, threat (hazards) and consequences in a common platform. Traditional 'bow-tie' approach is not able to characterize model uncertainty that arises due to assumption of independence among different risk events. In this paper, in order to deal with vagueness of the data, the fuzzy logic is employed to derive fuzzy probabilities (likelihood) of basic events in fault tree and to estimate fuzzy probabilities (likelihood) of output event consequences. The study also explores how inter-dependencies among various factors might influence analysis results and introduces fuzzy utility value (FUV) to perform risk assessment for natural gas pipelines using triple bottom line (TBL) sustainability criteria, namely, social, environmental and economical consequences. The present study aims to help owners of transmission and distribution pipeline companies in risk management and decision-making to consider multi-dimensional consequences that may arise from pipeline failures. The research results can help professionals to decide whether and where to take preventive or corrective actions and help informed decision-making in the risk management process. A simple example is used to demonstrate the proposed approach. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.