Crime, Weather, and Climate Change
Crime, Weather, and Climate Change
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2111377
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发表时间：
2012-11
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Matthew H. Ranson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Matthew H. Ranson
本文估计了气候变化对美国犯罪活动的影响。这项分析是基于美国2997个县30年来的月度犯罪和天气数据。我通过使用半参数bin估计器来确定天气对每月犯罪的影响，并控制各州每月和县每年的固定效应。结果表明，温度对犯罪行为有很强的正向影响，几乎没有证据表明存在滞后影响。在2010年至2099年期间，气候变化将在美国造成额外的2.2万起谋杀、18万起强奸案件、120万起严重袭击案件、230万起简单袭击案件、26万起抢劫案件、130万起入室盗窃案件、220万起盗窃案件和58万起车辆盗窃案件。
This paper estimates the impact of climate change on the prevalence of criminal activity in the United States. The analysis is based on a 30-year panel of monthly crime and weather data for 2997 US counties. I identify the effect of weather on monthly crime by using a semi-parametric bin estimator and controlling for state-by-month and county-by-year fixed effects. The results show that temperature has a strong positive effect on criminal behavior, with little evidence of lagged impacts. Between 2010 and 2099, climate change will cause an additional 22,000 murders, 180,000 cases of rape, 1.2 million aggravated assaults, 2.3 million simple assaults, 260,000 robberies, 1.3 million burglaries, 2.2 million cases of larceny, and 580,000 cases of vehicle theft in the United States.