A predictive model of the temperature-dependent inactivation of coronaviruses
A predictive model of the temperature-dependent inactivation of coronaviruses
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DOI：
10.1063/5.0020782
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发表时间：
2020-08-10
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Preston, Daniel J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yap, Te Faye;Liu, Zhen;Preston, Daniel J.
COVID-19大流行给医疗保健系统和供应线带来了压力，迫使医生冒着感染的风险去消毒和重复使用一次性个人防护装备。大流行的未来不确定，再加上有关病毒SARS-CoV-2在各种气候条件下生存能力的数据有限，使流行病学家无法准确地模拟其传播。然而，对SARS-CoV-2和相关冠状病毒灭活的实验数据进行详细的热力学分析，可以对它们的热降解有一个基本的了解，这将有助于建立COVID-19大流行的模型，并缓解未来的疫情。这项工作引入了一个热力学模型，该模型将现有数据综合到一个基于第一原理的分析框架中，包括一阶反应的速率定律和阿伦尼乌斯方程，以准确预测冠状病毒的温度依赖失活。该模型为包括口罩在内的个人防护设备提供了急需的热去污指南。例如，在70℃条件下，平均3分钟内病毒浓度降低3对数（99.9%）（在相同条件下，更保守的去污染时间为39min代表95%间隔的上限），并且可以在大多数家用烤箱中进行，而不会降低典型N95口罩的功效，如最近的实验报告所示。该模型还将允许流行病学家将SARS-CoV-2的生命周期作为环境温度的连续函数纳入预测大流行在不同气候和季节传播的模型中。
The COVID-19 pandemic has stressed healthcare systems and supply lines, forcing medical doctors to risk infection by decontaminating and reusing single-use personal protective equipment. The uncertain future of the pandemic is compounded by limited data on the ability of the responsible virus, SARS-CoV-2, to survive across various climates, preventing epidemiologists from accurately modeling its spread. However, a detailed thermodynamic analysis of experimental data on the inactivation of SARS-CoV-2 and related coronaviruses can enable a fundamental understanding of their thermal degradation that will help model the COVID-19 pandemic and mitigate future outbreaks. This work introduces a thermodynamic model that synthesizes existing data into an analytical framework built on first principles, including the rate law for a first-order reaction and the Arrhenius equation, to accurately predict the temperature-dependent inactivation of coronaviruses. The model provides much-needed thermal decontamination guidelines for personal protective equipment, including masks. For example, at 70 degrees C, a 3-log (99.9%) reduction in virus concentration can be achieved, on average, in 3min (under the same conditions, a more conservative decontamination time of 39min represents the upper limit of a 95% interval) and can be performed in most home ovens without reducing the efficacy of typical N95 masks as shown in recent experimental reports. This model will also allow for epidemiologists to incorporate the lifetime of SARS-CoV-2 as a continuous function of environmental temperature into models forecasting the spread of the pandemic across different climates and seasons.