Prospects for predicting two flavors of El Nino
Prospects for predicting two flavors of El Nino
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DOI：
10.1029/2009gl040100
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发表时间：
2009-10-14
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Hudson, Debra
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hendon, Harry H.;Lim, Eunpa;Hudson, Debra
厄尔尼诺对全球气候的影响对赤道太平洋表面变暖的细节很敏感，这些细节在每次厄尔尼诺事件之间都有所不同。两个突出的类型的厄尔尼诺现象，传统的冷舌事件，在东太平洋有最大的表面变暖，和暖池事件，在太平洋中部有最大的变暖模式的异常海洋温度的差异预测的能力进行了探讨。我们使用澳大利亚气象局耦合海洋-大气季节预报模型评估两种类型的厄尔尼诺的季节性预测。对两种厄尔尼诺现象之间的海洋表面温度异常模式的主要差异的预测被限制在小于一个季节的提前时间内，这比预测厄尔尼诺现象的发生要短得多，但这对区域气候预测确实有重要的实际应用。提高对暖池事件机制的认识，减少太平洋暖池/冷舌的平均状态和耦合变率模式的系统模式偏差，应能提高预测与厄尔尼诺有关的区域气候变率的技能。引文：亨登，H。H、E. Lim，G. Wang，O. Alves和D.哈德逊（2009），预测两种厄尔尼诺现象的前景，地球物理学。保留信函：36，L19713，doi：10.1029/2009GL040100。
Global climatic impacts of El Nino are sensitive to details of the surface warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which vary between each El Nino event. The ability to predict the differences in pattern of anomalous ocean temperatures is explored for two prominent types of El Nino, traditional cold tongue events that have maximum surface warming in the eastern Pacific, and warm pool events that have maximum warming in the central Pacific. We assess seasonal predictions of the two types of El Nino using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal forecast model. Prediction of the major differences in pattern of anomalous ocean surface temperature between the two types of El Nino is limited to less than 1 season lead time, which is much shorter than for prediction of the occurrence of El Nino but which does have important practical application for prediction of regional climate. Improved understanding of the mechanisms of warm pool events and reduction of systematic model biases of the mean state and the coupled modes of variability in the Pacific warm pool/cold tongue should lead to improved skill for predicting regional climate variability associated with El Nino. Citation: Hendon, H. H., E. Lim, G. Wang, O. Alves, and D. Hudson (2009), Prospects for predicting two flavors of El Nino, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19713, doi:10.1029/2009GL040100.