Climate‐index response profiling indicates larval transport is driving population fluctuations in nudibranch gastropods from the northeast Pacific Ocean
Climate‐index response profiling indicates larval transport is driving population fluctuations in nudibranch gastropods from the northeast Pacific Ocean
复制标题
气候指数响应分析表明，幼虫运输正在推动东北太平洋裸鳃类腹足动物的种群波动
DOI：
10.4319/lo.2011.56.2.0749
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发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
J. Pearse
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Schultz;J. H. Goddard;T. Gosliner;Douglas E. Mason;William E. Pence;G. R. McDonald;V. Pearse;J. Pearse
我们举例说明了一种新的方法，气候指数响应剖面法，用于测试长期海洋数据集中丰度波动的机械假设。(1)以气候指数为外回归变量，对多种物种的时间序列数据进行自回归模型拟合。由此得到的每个物种的回归系数我们称之为气候指数响应剖面(CIRP)。(2)基于荟萃分析得到的物种间反应概貌的力学假说被否定。(3)对所有物种在所有地点的CIRP进行了蒙特卡罗模拟，以产生零期望来检验非排斥假设的重要性。我们将这种方法应用于加州中部三个潮间带独立研究地点的56种裸目动物的历史数据，这些地点在1969-1995年间没有重叠的时间段，结合这些相同地点最近的重新调查。成虫种群与多变量厄尔尼诺-南方涛动指数和海面高度密切相关，在厄尔尼诺期间增加，在拉尼娜事件期间减少。我们的数据与幼虫平流作为成虫丰度变化的主要驱动力的招募限制是一致的。厄尔尼诺现象使南部和北部种群的幼虫跨陆架陆上平流和南部来源种群的近岸幼虫平流增加了招募。我们假设，最近加州裸鳍动物的减少是暂时的，随着厄尔尼诺现象回到加州海流，种群数量将会恢复。
We illustrate a novel method, climate‐index response profiling, for testing mechanistic hypotheses for abundance fluctuations in long‐term marine data sets. (1) Autoregressive models were fitted to time‐series data for multiple species using climate indices as external regressors. The resulting regression coefficients for each species we term a climate‐index response profile (CIRP). (2) Mechanistic hypotheses were rejected based on the summary response profile across species obtained by meta‐analysis. (3) Monte‐Carlo simulations of the CIRPs for all species at all sites were performed to generate null expectations to test the significance of nonrejected hypotheses. We applied this method to historical data of 56 nudibranch species from three intertidal sites studied independently in central California during nonoverlapping time periods between 1969 and 1995, combined with recent resurveys from these same sites. Adult populations are strongly correlated with the multivariate El Niño‐Southern Oscillation index and sea‐surface height, increasing during El Niño and decreasing during La Niña events. Our data are consistent with recruitment limitation via larval advection as the primary driver of adult abundance variation. El Niño conditions increase recruitment by cross‐shelf onshore advection of larvae from both southern and northern populations, and alongshore larval advection from southern source populations. We hypothesize that recent declines of California nudibranchs are temporary, and populations will recover as El Niño conditions return to the California current.