Modeling Selection Bias in Studies of Sanctions Efficacy
Modeling Selection Bias in Studies of Sanctions Efficacy
复制标题
制裁效力研究中的选择偏差建模
DOI：
10.1080/03050620210394
复制
发表时间：
2002
影响因子：
1.3
通讯作者：
Irfan Nooruddin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Irfan Nooruddin
制裁很少奏效，但政策制定者仍在频繁使用。我认为，以前对制裁的研究只关注已实施制裁的案例，忽视了战略审查的问题。本文建立了制裁实施和成功的统一模型，并使用联立方程审查概率模型对其进行了检验。这种选择修正的制裁模型发现，实施制裁的过程与一些人成功而另一些人失败的过程有关，导致实施制裁的未测量因素与制裁的成功负相关。
Sanctions rarely work but they continue to be used frequently by policymakers. I argue that previous studies of sanctions ignore the problem of strategic censoring by focusing only on cases of observed sanctions. In this paper, I develop a unified model of sanction imposition and success and test it using a simultaneous equation censored probit model. This selection-corrected sanction model finds that the process by which sanctions are imposed is linked to the process by which some succeed while others fail, and that the unmeasured factors that lead to sanction imposition are negatively related to their success.