New measures of multimodality for the detection of a ghost stochastic resonance.
New measures of multimodality for the detection of a ghost stochastic resonance.
复制标题
用于检测鬼随机共振的多模态新措施。
作者：
H. Braun;Peter D. Ditlevsen;Jürgen Kurths
大幅度（10-15 K）的千年持续变暖事件，Dansgaard-Oeschger（DO）事件，反复发生在北大西洋地区在冰河时代。到目前为止，这些事件的触发因素尚不清楚。为了解释它们的复发模式，已经提出了幽灵随机共振（GSR）方案，即，一个动态的情况下，事件代表的次谐波响应百年尺度的太阳强迫加上噪音。根据这一假设，预计事件的多峰相位分布，这应该通过时间序列分析的气候记录的基础上进行测试。然而，这些测试中的一个主要障碍是需要一种规律性的统计测量方法，以区分溶解氧事件的随机发生和地面反应情景。在这里，我们构建和比较三个新的措施相多峰。在一个简单的概念模型的DO事件的蒙特卡罗模拟，我们模拟概率分布的措施，在这两种情况下实现只有11个DO事件。基于这些分布，我们发现，我们的措施是能够区分随机发生和GSR的情况。我们进一步应用我们的措施来分析最近11个溶解氧事件的重现模式在北格陵兰冰芯项目从格陵兰岛的深冰芯。
Large-amplitude (10-15 K) millennial-duration warming events, the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, repeatedly occurred in the North Atlantic region during ice ages. So far, the trigger of these events is not known. To explain their recurrence pattern, a ghost stochastic resonance (GSR) scenario has been suggested, i.e., a dynamical scenario in which the events represent the subharmonic response to centennial-scale solar forcing plus noise. According to this hypothesis a multimodal phase distribution of the events is expected, which should be tested on the basis of climate records by means of time series analysis. A major obstacle in these tests, however, is the need of a statistical measure of regularity that can distinguish between a random occurrence of DO events and a GSR scenario. Here we construct and compare three new measures of phase multimodality. In a Monte Carlo simulation with a simple conceptual model of DO events we simulate probability distributions of the measures under both scenarios for realizations of only 11 DO events. Based on these distributions we find that our measures are able to distinguish between a random occurrence and a GSR scenario. We further apply our measures to analyze the recurrence pattern of the last 11 DO events in the North Greenland Ice Core Project deep ice core from Greenland.
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Braun, H.;Ditlevsen, P.;Chialvo, D. R.
通讯作者：
Chialvo, D. R.