Early adult outcomes of adolescent binge drinking: Person- and variable-centered analyses of binge drinking trajectories
Early adult outcomes of adolescent binge drinking: Person- and variable-centered analyses of binge drinking trajectories
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1530-0277.2000.tb02071.x
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发表时间：
2000-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Catalano, RF
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hill, KG;White, HR;Catalano, RF
背景：许多关于酗酒后果的研究都采取以变量为中心的方法，这可能掩盖了不同的发育轨迹。最近的研究报告了青年时期的酗酒轨迹在性质上有所不同。然而，对酗酒发展轨迹的分析尚未针对饮酒发展的一个重要时期：青春期进行研究。本研究的目的是采用以人为中心和以变量为中心的方法相结合的方法来检查青少年酗酒的结果。方法：数据来自西雅图社会发展项目，对 10 岁至 21 岁的种族多样化、性别平衡的样本 (n = 808) 进行前瞻性跟踪。基于半参数组的模型用于确定青春期酗酒轨迹的分组。在考虑了人口统计学、儿童期指标和青少年吸毒情况后，使用逻辑回归来检验轨迹组对年轻人结果的预测效果。结果：确定了青春期酗酒的四种不同轨迹：早期兴奋、增加者、晚发和非酗酒者。在控制人口特征、结果的早期代理测量和青少年吸毒后，这些轨迹显着预测了成年期的积极和消极结果。结论：这种以个人和变量为中心的综合方法比单独采用以变量为中心的方法的研究提供了更多关于特定酗酒模式的影响的信息。
Background: Many studies of the consequences of binge drinking take a variable-centered approach that may mask developmentally different trajectories. Recent studies have reported qualitatively different binge drinking trajectories in young adulthood. However, analyses of developmental trajectories of binge drinking have not been examined for an important period of drinking development: adolescence. The purpose of this study was to examine young adult outcomes of adolescent binge drinking using an approach that combines person-centered and variable-centered methods.Methods: Data were from the Seattle Social Development Project, an ethnically diverse, gender balanced sample (n = 808) followed prospectively from age 10 to age 21. Semiparametric group-based modeling was used to determine groups of binge drinking trajectories in adolescence. Logistic regression was used to examine how well the trajectory groups predicted young adult outcomes after demographics, childhood measures, and adolescent drug use were considered.Results: Four distinct trajectories of binge drinking during adolescence were identified: Early Highs, increasers, Late Onsetters, and Nonbingers. These trajectories significantly predicted positive and negative outcomes in adulthood after controlling for demographic characteristics, early proxy measures of the outcome, and adolescent drug use.Conclusions: This integrated person- and variable-centered approach provides more information about the effects of specific patterns of binge drinking than studies that employ variable-centered methods alone.