Development of a predictive risk model for school readiness at age 3 years using the UK Millennium Cohort Study
Development of a predictive risk model for school readiness at age 3 years using the UK Millennium Cohort Study
复制标题
DOI：
10.1136/bmjopen-2018-024851
复制
发表时间：
2019-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Taylor-Robinson, David
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Camacho, Christine;Straatmann, Viviane S.;Taylor-Robinson, David
目的本研究的目的是开发一个预测风险模型（PRM），用于在3岁时使用围产期和早期婴儿数据测量入学准备。设计和参与者本文描述了一个PRM的开发过程。预测因子是从英国千禧年队列研究第一波数据中确定的，这些数据是在参与者9个月大时收集的。结果是3岁时的入学准备情况，由布莱肯入学准备评估来衡量。采用逐步选择和优势度分析确定了两种模型。通过受试者工作特征曲线下面积（AUROC）和综合判别改进（IDI）对模型进行比较。结果9487例完整病例获得资料。在3岁时，11.7% （95% CI 11.0%至12.3%）的儿童没有做好上学的准备。确定的变量包括：父母的社会经济分类、儿童的种族、母亲的教育程度、收入手、性别、家庭子女人数、母亲的年龄、低出生体重、母亲的心理健康、婴儿发育里程碑、母乳喂养、父母的就业、住房类型。一个简约的模型包括前六个列出的变量（模型2）。模型1的AUROC为0.80 (95% CI 0.78 ~ 0.81)，模型2的AUROC为0.78 （95% CI 0.77 ~ 0.79）。模型1导致歧视有小幅改善(IDI=1.3%, p
Objectives The aim of this study is to develop a predictive risk model (PRM) for school readiness measured at age 3 years using perinatal and early infancy data.Design and participants This paper describes the development of a PRM. Predictors were identified from the UK Millennium Cohort Study wave 1 data, collected when participants were 9 months old. The outcome was school readiness at age 3 years, measured by the Bracken School Readiness Assessment. Stepwise selection and dominance analysis were used to specify two models. The models were compared by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).Results Data were available for 9487 complete cases. At age 3,11.7% (95% CI 11.0% to 12.3%) of children were not school ready. The variables identified were: parents' Socio-Economic Classification, child's ethnicity, maternal education, income hand, sex, household number of children, mother's age, low birth weight, mother's mental health, infant developmental milestones, breastfeeding, parents' employment, housing type. A parsimonious model included the first six listed variables (model 2). The AUROC for model 1 was 0.80 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.81) and 0.78 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.79) for model 2. Model 1 resulted in a small improvement in discrimination (IDI=1.3%, p