Accounting for asymmetric price responses and underlying energy demand trends in OECD industrial energy demand
Accounting for asymmetric price responses and underlying energy demand trends in OECD industrial energy demand
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DOI：
10.1016/j.eneco.2014.07.012
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发表时间：
2014-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
12.8
通讯作者：
Hunt, Lester C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Adeyemi, Olutomi I.;Hunt, Lester C.
本文探讨了在对经合组织工业能源需求进行建模时如何捕捉技术进步和能源效率的提高。发达国家的工业部门涉及许多不同的做法和工艺，利用一系列不同的技术。因此，鉴于能源的衍生需求性质，在对工业能源需求进行建模时，必须适当捕捉技术进步的影响。然而，能源经济学文献并没有给出一个明确的指导如何实现这一点;一股认为，技术进步是“内生”通过不对称的价格反应，而另一股认为，它是“外生”。最近，有人提出，潜在的“内源性”技术进步和“外源性”技术进步的作用，因此，一般模型应相应地指定。因此，本文试图使用1962-2010年期间15个经合组织国家的年度时间序列数据来模拟经合组织工业能源需求。使用结构时间序列模型框架，一般规格考虑到不对称的价格反应（技术进步的内在影响）和潜在的能源需求趋势（技术进步和其他因素的外部影响，但以非线性方式）。结果表明，几乎所有的首选模型，经合组织工业能源需求纳入随机的基本能源需求趋势和不对称的价格反应。由此得出的长期收入弹性估计值在0.34 ~ 0.96之间;长期价格最高弹性估计值在-0.06 ~-1.22之间;长期价格恢复弹性估计值在0.00 ~-0.27之间;长期降价弹性估计值在0.00 ~-0.18之间。此外，分析表明，在模拟工业能源需求时，有一个地方的“内生”技术进步和“外源”的基本能源需求趋势，因此，有人认为，任何建模策略应该开始包括这两个，只有施加限制，如果接受的数据。(C)2014爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
This paper explores the way technical progress and improvements in energy efficiency are captured when modelling OECD industrial energy demand. The industrial sectors of the developed world involve a number of different practices and processes utilising a range of different technologies. Consequently, given the derived demand nature of energy, it is vital when modelling industrial energy demand that the impact of technical progress is appropriately captured. However, the energy economics literature does not give a clear guide on how this can be achieved; one strand suggests that technical progress is 'endogenous' via asymmetric price responses whereas another strand suggests that it is 'exogenous'. More recently, it has been suggested that potentially there is a role for both 'endogenous' technical progress and 'exogenous' technical progress and consequently the general model should be specified accordingly. This paper therefore attempts to model OECD industrial energy demand using annual time series data over the period 1962-2010 for 15 OECD countries. Using the Structural Time Series Model framework, the general specifications allow for both asymmetric price responses (for technical progress to impact endogenously) and an underlying energy demand trend (for technical progress and other factors to impact exogenously, but in a non-linear way). The results show that almost all of the preferred models for OECD industrial energy demand incorporate both a stochastic underlying energy demand trend and asymmetric price responses. This gives estimated long-run income elasticities in the range of 034 to 0.96; estimated long-run price-maximum elasticities in the range of -0.06 to -1.22; estimated long-run price-recovery elasticities in the range of 0.00 to -0.27; and estimated long-run price-cut elasticities in the range of 0.00 to -0.18. Furthermore, the analysis suggests that when modelling industrial energy demand there is a place for 'endogenous' technical progress and an 'exogenous' underlying energy demand trend; consequently, it is argued.that, any modelling strategy should start by including both and only imposed restrictions if accepted by the data. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.