Have greenhouse gases intensified the contrast between wet and dry regions?
Have greenhouse gases intensified the contrast between wet and dry regions?
复制标题
DOI：
10.1002/grl.50923
复制
发表时间：
2013-09
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
D. Polson;G. Hegerl;Richard P. Allan;B. Sarojini
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Polson;G. Hegerl;Richard P. Allan;B. Sarojini
虽然过去50年陆地降水的变化部分归因于人类的影响，但结果因季节而异，受数据不确定性的影响，并且没有考虑到海洋上的变化。水循环对气候变暖最有力的反应之一是现有的降水减去蒸发量模式的预期放大。本文利用1988-2010年的陆地和海洋卫星数据，分析了干旱和潮湿地区的降水量变化。我们从气候模型模拟中得出预期变化的指纹，该模型分别跟踪潮湿和干燥地区的变化。所使用的模拟是在人为和自然强迫相结合的情况下进行的，只有温室气体强迫或自然强迫。探测和归因分析的结果表明，在观测中可以检测到组合外强迫的指纹，这种水循环的加剧部分归因于温室气体强迫。
While changes in land precipitation during the last 50 years have been attributed in part to human influences, results vary by season, are affected by data uncertainty and do not account for changes over ocean. One of the more physically robust responses of the water cycle to warming is the expected amplification of existing patterns of precipitation minus evaporation. Here, precipitation changes in wet and dry regions are analyzed from satellite data for 1988–2010, covering land and ocean. We derive fingerprints for the expected change from climate model simulations that separately track changes in wet and dry regions. The simulations used are driven with anthropogenic and natural forcings combined, and greenhouse gas forcing or natural forcing only. Results of detection and attribution analysis show that the fingerprint of combined external forcing is detectable in observations and that this intensification of the water cycle is partly attributable to greenhouse gas forcing.