Can climate change cause the Yellow River to dry up?
Can climate change cause the Yellow River to dry up?
复制标题
DOI：
10.1029/2009wr007971
复制
发表时间：
2010-02
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
S. Liang;S. Ge;L. Wan;J. Zhang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Liang;S. Ge;L. Wan;J. Zhang
近几十年来，中国黄河源区生态环境恶化。自1960年以来，黄河流量多次减少到零，这对下游的水资源和生态系统造成了毁灭性的影响。为了了解干涸的原因，我们分析了流量、温度和降水的记录，并探讨了它们之间的联系。利用小波分析，我们表明，黄河流量是一个综合的温度和降水的气候变化的响应。我们认为，放电是最好的解释，在35-50年的趋势和降水量在不到10年的时间内的温度变化。零排放事件可以定量地与变暖和降水减少的时期相关。这项研究的结果可能对评估水资源如何应对气候变化具有广泛的意义。
The source region of the Yellow River, China, has experienced eco‐environmental deterioration in recent decades. The Yellow River discharge has reduced to zero numerous times since 1960, which has left a devastating impact on water resources and ecosystems downstream. Seeking to understand the causes of drying up, we analyze the records of discharge, temperature, and precipitation and explore the linkages among them. Using wavelet analysis, we show that the Yellow River discharge represents a comprehensive response to climatic variations in temperature and precipitation. We suggest that the discharge is best explained by variations in temperature over a 35–50 year trend and precipitation over periods of less than 10 years. Zero discharge events can be quantitatively correlated to periods of warming and reduced precipitation. Findings of this study may have a broad implication in assessing how water resources respond to climate changes.