The Missing Link of Crime Analysis: A Systematic Approach to Testing Competing Hypotheses
The Missing Link of Crime Analysis: A Systematic Approach to Testing Competing Hypotheses
复制标题
犯罪分析的缺失环节：检验竞争假设的系统方法
DOI：
10.1093/police/par023
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发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
K. Garrett
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Townsley;Monique Mann;K. Garrett
传统上，犯罪分析人员在分析过程中的关键任务，特别是检验多重假设和以科学方式评估证据方面，很少得到学术研究人员的指导。本文试图通过概述一种系统分析对犯罪问题的多种解释的方法(竞争假说分析)来填补这一空白。这种方法是系统的，避免了分析中常见的许多认知错误，而且是明确的。有人认为，这种方法的实施使分析产品能够被审计，支撑它们的推理是透明的，并为情报经理提供了一种针对个别分析师的理性职业发展工具。
Crime analysts have traditionally received little guidance from academic researchers in key tasks in the analysis process, specifically the testing of multiple hypotheses and evaluating evidence in a scientific fashion. This article attempts to fill this gap by outlining a method (the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses) of systematically analysing multiple explanations for crime problems. The method is systematic, avoids many cognitive errors common in analysis, and is explicit. It is argued that the implementation of this approach makes analytic products audit-able, the reasoning underpinning them transparent, and provides intelligence managers a rational professional development tool for individual analysts.