Estimation of a possible maximum flood event in the Tone River basin, Japan caused by a tropical cyclone
Estimation of a possible maximum flood event in the Tone River basin, Japan caused by a tropical cyclone
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热带气旋在日本利根河流域可能引发的最大洪水事件的估计
DOI：
10.1002/hyp.9830
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发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
shikawa;H.;Oku;Y.;Kim;S.;Takemi;T. and Yoshino;J
热带气旋对社会造成的破坏在很大程度上取决于相对于地理位置的风暴路径。提出了一种生成偏离给定参考案例原始路径的不同台风路径的方法。在此过程中，利用位涡度反演方法，在台风登陆前的某一时刻，以物理一致的方式人为地改变台风的位置。在改变台风位置后，随后的发展过程再次由一个中尺度天气模式模拟。该程序应用于使用大气环流模式进行的全球变暖实验中出现的强台风。生成了台风登陆情况的各种实现。利用一套不同轨道实现的输出，以日本Tone河流域的河流流量为例，讨论了最坏情况。版权所有©2013 John Wiley & Sons， Ltd
The damage to society caused by tropical cyclones depends largely on the storm track relative to geography. A procedure is proposed to generate different typhoon tracks deviating from the original track of a given reference case. In this procedure, the position of a typhoon is artificially shifted at a certain time before landing in a physically consistent way by applying potential vorticity inversion methodology. After shifting the typhoon position, the subsequent progress is again simulated by a mesoscale weather model. The procedure is applied to a strong typhoon that emerged in a global warming experiment using an atmospheric general circulation model. Various realizations of typhoon landfall cases are generated. Using the output of a suite of realization of different tracks, the worst case scenario is discussed in terms of the river discharge in the Tone River basin, Japan. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.