Predictive modeling of indoor dust lead concentrations: Sources, risks, and benefits of intervention
Predictive modeling of indoor dust lead concentrations: Sources, risks, and benefits of intervention
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室内灰尘铅浓度的预测模型：干预的来源、风险和好处
DOI：
10.1016/j.envpol.2023.121039
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Wood, Leah R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dietrich, Matthew;Barlow, Cynthia F.;Entwistle, Jane A.;Meza-Figueroa, Diana;Dong, Chenyin;Gunkel-Grillon, Peggy;Jabeen, Khadija;Bramwell, Lindsay;Shukle, John T.;Wood, Leah R.
铅(铅)污染继续在所有国家，特别是低收入和中等收入国家造成世界范围的发病率。尽管它继续对全球人口，特别是儿童产生广泛的不利影响，但缺乏对家庭粉尘铅升高的准确预测，以及国家和全球范围内简单、低成本的家庭干预措施的潜在影响。使用来自社区的家庭粉尘样本的全球数据集(∼40个国家，n=1951)来预测室内粉尘是否含有铅，扩展了美国(美国)最近的工作。仓储住房年限类别本身是粉尘铅升高的重要预测因子，但仅对英格兰和澳大利亚产生了有效的预测准确性(灵敏度为∼80%)，与美国之前的结果相似。这可能反映了这三个国家之间可比的铅污染遗留问题，特别是在住宅含铅涂料方面。全球范围内与铅污染相关的异质性使我们的模型的预测精度变得复杂，在英国、美国和澳大利亚以外的国家，预测精度较低。这可能是由于不同的环境铅法规、来源以及这三个国家以外可用粉尘样本的稀少所致。在英国、美国和澳大利亚，基于我们的模型，简单、低成本的家庭干预策略，如吸尘器和湿拖把，可以在四年内保守地节省700亿美元。在全球范围内，通过改进预测建模和初步干预以减少有害的铅粉尘暴露，可以节省高达1.68万亿美元的成本。
Lead (Pb) contamination continues to contribute to world-wide morbidity in all countries, particularly low- and middle-income countries. Despite its continued widespread adverse effects on global populations, particularly children, accurate prediction of elevated household dust Pb and the potential implications of simple, low-cost household interventions at national and global scales have been lacking. A global dataset (∼40 countries, n = 1951) of community sourced household dust samples were used to predict whether indoor dust was elevated in Pb, expanding on recent work in the United States (U.S.). Binned housing age category alone was a significant (p < 0.01) predictor of elevated dust Pb, but only generated effective predictive accuracy for England and Australia (sensitivity of ∼80%), similar to previous results in the U.S. This likely reflects comparable Pb pollution legacies between these three countries, particularly with residential Pb paint. The heterogeneity associated with Pb pollution at a global scale complicates the predictive accuracy of our model, which is lower for countries outside England, the U.S., and Australia. This is likely due to differing environmental Pb regulations, sources, and the paucity of dust samples available outside of these three countries. In England, the U.S., and Australia, simple, low-cost household intervention strategies such as vacuuming and wet mopping could conservatively save 70 billion USD within a four-year period based on our model. Globally, up to 1.68 trillion USD could be saved with improved predictive modeling and primary intervention to reduce harmful exposure to Pb dust sources.