Understanding post-disaster population recovery patterns
Understanding post-disaster population recovery patterns
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DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2019.0532
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发表时间：
2020-02
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
T. Yabe;K. Tsubouchi;N. Fujiwara;Y. Sekimoto;S. Ukkusuri
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Yabe;K. Tsubouchi;N. Fujiwara;Y. Sekimoto;S. Ukkusuri
尽管加强社区抗灾能力的重要性日益增加，但我们对社区何时、如何以及为什么能够从这种极端事件中恢复的理解有限。在这里，我们通过观察三个国家的190多万移动的电话用户在五次重大灾害之前、期间和之后的人口流动轨迹，研究了受灾地区人口的宏观恢复模式。我们发现，尽管受影响地区的社会经济特征和灾害类型各不相同，但在大规模流离失所之后，人口恢复趋势与所有五次灾害之后的模式相似。此外，一系列关键的共同因素解释了这三个国家各社区最初和长期流离失所率的差异，包括社区的收入中位数、人口、住房损坏率和与其他城市的连通性。从大规模的经验数据中发现的这种见解可以帮助制定不同学科的政策，以发展社区的抗灾能力。
Despite the rising importance of enhancing community resilience to disasters, our understandings on when, how and why communities are able to recover from such extreme events are limited. Here, we study the macroscopic population recovery patterns in disaster affected regions, by observing human mobility trajectories of over 1.9 million mobile phone users across three countries before, during and after five major disasters. We find that, despite the diversity in socio-economic characteristics among the affected regions and the types of hazards, population recovery trends after significant displacement resemble similar patterns after all five disasters. Moreover, the heterogeneity in initial and long-term displacement rates across communities in the three countries were explained by a set of key common factors, including the community’s median income level, population, housing damage rates and the connectedness to other cities. Such insights discovered from large-scale empirical data could assist policymaking in various disciplines for developing community resilience to disasters.