Energy scenarios: the value and limits of scenario analysis
Energy scenarios: the value and limits of scenario analysis
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DOI：
10.1002/wene.242
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发表时间：
2017-07
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Paltsev
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文献类型：
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作者：
S. Paltsev
对低碳世界的需求为长期能源情景的发展增加了新的挑战维度。除了技术进步、人口、经济、政治和制度等传统因素外，现代能源预测的另一个方面与减少温室气体排放和空气污染物的政策的覆盖范围、时间和严格程度有关。能源情景发展的现代工具为估计实现某些气候和环境目标所需的能源系统变化提供了良好的基础。虽然目前的情况表明，向低碳能源未来的转变需要能源投资和由此产生的能源技术组合的巨大变化，但确切的技术组合、所需组合的路径、价格和成本预测应该非常谨慎地对待。这些情景不能提供精确的预测，但它们可以用作与不同路径相关的决策风险的定性分析。如果以史为鉴的话，能源情景高估了未来与最近的过去相似的程度。由于未来的成本和由此产生的技术组合是不确定的，明智的政府政策是以任何来源的减排为目标，而不是专注于促进某些低碳能源。环境工程学报，2017,26(6):942 - 942。doi: 10.1002 / wene.242
A need for low‐carbon world has added a new challenging dimension for the long‐term energy scenarios development. In addition to the traditional factors like technological progress, demographic, economic, political, and institutional considerations, there is another aspect of the modern energy forecasts related to the coverage, timing, and stringency of policies to mitigate the greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants. Modern tools for the energy scenario development provide a good basis for the estimates of the required changes in the energy system to achieve certain climate and environmental targets. While the current scenarios show that a move to a low‐carbon energy future requires a drastic change in energy investment and the resulting mix in energy technologies, the exact technology mix, paths to the needed mix, price, and cost projections should be treated with a great degree of caution. The scenarios do not provide exact predictions, but they can be used as a qualitative analysis of decision‐making risks associated with different pathways. If history is any guide, energy scenarios overestimate the extent to which the future will look like the recent past. As future costs and the resulting technology mixes are uncertain, a wise government policy is to target emissions reductions from any source, rather than focus on boosting certain kinds of low‐carbon energy. WIREs Energy Environ 2017, 6:e242. doi: 10.1002/wene.242