Effects of advection on predicting construction debris for vulnerability assessment under multi-hazard earthquake and tsunami
Effects of advection on predicting construction debris for vulnerability assessment under multi-hazard earthquake and tsunami
复制标题
平流对预测建筑残骸的影响，以进行多灾种地震和海啸的脆弱性评估
DOI：
10.1016/j.coastaleng.2019.103541
复制
发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
D. Cox
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hyoungsu Park;D. Cox
2010年智利和2011年东北地震和海啸等破坏性事件的调查结果显示，海啸淹没期间可能会产生不同类型的碎片并向陆地移动。在恢复过程中，平流的碎片会对结构造成重大破坏，并对社区的恢复能力产生负面影响。为了改进减灾计划，尽量减少损失，并提高社区对未来海啸事件的抵御能力，有必要对碎片进行量化并预测其最终分布。在这项研究中，我们提出了一个框架来量化多灾害地震和海啸事件中产生和平流的建筑碎片的数量和位置。该框架根据危害的最大强度措施进行脆弱性分析，量化碎片的数量，然后使用时间相关的淹没模型来预测碎片的浮力部分，以估计碎片的轨迹和最终分布。我们将这一框架应用于俄勒冈州的Seaside，受Cascadia俯冲带事件的影响，在100到10,000年的范围内有8个重复周期。通过对有和没有平流模型的碎屑分布进行比较，可以看出考虑平流对理解最终碎屑分布的重要性。我们表明，最终的碎片分布可能对关键设施的初始可达性和功能产生重大影响，仅考虑危害强度难以估计。我们展示了产生和平流的碎片体积如何随着年超越概率的减小而增加（增加返回周期），以及跨岸碎片剖面的峰值位置如何与海啸积聚的最大极限相关。该分析仅考虑浮力建筑垃圾，并可扩展到考虑非浮力、自然（如植被）和人为（如车辆、集装箱、船舶）垃圾。
Post survey results from devastating events such as the 2010 Chile and 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami reported that different types of debris could be generated and shifted landward during tsunami inundation. That advected debris can result in significant damage to structures and negative impacts on community resilience during the recovery process. To improve mitigation plans, minimize losses, and to improve the community resilience to future tsunami events, it is necessary to quantify the debris and predict its final distribution. In this study, we present a framework to quantify the amount and location of construction debris generated and advected from a multi-hazard earthquake and tsunami event. The framework performs fragility analysis based on maximum intensity measures of the hazards, quantifies the amount of debris, and then advects the buoyant portion of debris using a time-dependent inundation model to estimate the trajectory and final distribution of debris. We apply this framework to Seaside, Oregon, subjects to events from the Cascadia Subduction Zone for eight recurrence intervals over the range of 100 to 10,000 years. Comparison of the debris distribution with and without the advection model highlights the importance of including advection to understand the final debris distribution. We show that the final debris distribution could have a significant impact on the initial accessibility and functionality of critical facilities which would be difficult to estimate considering the hazard intensity only. We show how the volume of debris generated and advected increases with the decreasing annual exceedance probability (increasing return period) and how the location of the peak cross-shore debris profile is related to the maximum limit of tsunami runup. This analysis considers only buoyant construction debris and could be extended to consider nonbuoyant, natural (e.g., vegetation) and anthropogenic (e.g., vehicles, shipping containers, marine vessels) debris.