Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 in China
Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 in China
复制标题
中国非药物干预措施遏制 COVID-19 的效果。
DOI：
10.1038/s41586-020-2293-x
复制
发表时间：
2020-05-04
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Tatem, Andrew J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lai, Shengjie;Ruktanonchai, Nick W.;Tatem, Andrew J.
2020 年 3 月 11 日，世界卫生组织 (WHO) 宣布 2019 年冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 为大流行病(1)。用于控制中国疫情的非药物干预策略似乎是有效的(2)，但仍需要进行定量研究来评估非药物干预措施的有效性及其时机(3)。在这里，我们利用 COVID-19 的流行病学数据和人类活动的匿名数据 (4,5) 开发了一个建模框架，该框架使用日常出行网络来模拟中国各地不同的疫情和干预场景。我们估计，截至 2020 年 2 月 29 日，中国大陆共有 114,325 例 COVID-19 病例（四分位距 76,776-164,576）。如果不采取非药物干预措施，我们预测到 2020 年 2 月 29 日，病例数将增加 67 倍（四分位距 44-94 倍），并且我们发现不同药物的有效性干预措施 多种多样。我们估计，与旅行限制和减少接触相比，早期发现和隔离病例可以预防更多的感染，但非药物干预措施的组合取得了最强和最快的效果。根据我们的模型，如果能够维持社交距离干预措施，自 2020 年 2 月 17 日起取消旅行限制不会导致中国各地的病例增加，即使个人之间的接触平均减少 25% 的有限水平持续到 4 月下旬。这些发现提高了我们对非药物干预措施对 COVID-19 影响的理解，并将为世界各地的应对工作提供信息。不同非药物干预措施对中国 COVID-19 传播影响的模型表明，快速实施综合干预措施的策略最为有效。
On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) a pandemic(1). The strategies based on non-pharmaceutical interventions that were used to contain the outbreak in China appear to be effective(2), but quantitative research is still needed to assess the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions and their timings(3). Here, using epidemiological data on COVID-19 and anonymized data on human movement(4,5), we develop a modelling framework that uses daily travel networks to simulate different outbreak and intervention scenarios across China. We estimate that there were a total of 114,325 cases of COVID-19 (interquartile range 76,776-164,576) in mainland China as of 29 February 2020. Without non-pharmaceutical interventions, we predict that the number of cases would have been 67-fold higher (interquartile range 44-94-fold) by 29 February 2020, and we find that the effectiveness of different interventions varied. We estimate that early detection and isolation of cases prevented more infections than did travel restrictions and contact reductions, but that a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions achieved the strongest and most rapid effect. According to our model, the lifting of travel restrictions from 17 February 2020 does not lead to an increase in cases across China if social distancing interventions can be maintained, even at a limited level of an on average 25% reduction in contact between individuals that continues until late April. These findings improve our understanding of the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19, and will inform response efforts across the world.A model of the effects of different non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in China suggests that a strategy involving the rapid implementation of a combination of interventions is most effective.