Estimating risk for developing epilepsy A population-based study in Rochester, Minnesota
Estimating risk for developing epilepsy A population-based study in Rochester, Minnesota
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DOI：
10.1212/wnl.0b013e318204a36a
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发表时间：
2011-01-04
期刊：
影响因子：
9.9
通讯作者：
Hauser, W. A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hesdorffer, D. C.;Logroscino, G.;Hauser, W. A.
目的：以前评估癫痫发生风险的研究未能考虑到死亡的竞争风险，这在癫痫发病率最高的老年人中很重要。我们报告癫痫的终生风险，考虑到死亡的竞争风险。方法：对1960年至1979年间明尼苏达州罗彻斯特市居民癫痫的终生风险和累计发病率进行调查。年龄、性别和日历年特定的死亡数据来自明尼苏达州罗切斯特市。终生风险被计算为一个人在达到特定年龄时罹患癫痫的条件概率，而这个人尚未罹患癫痫。终生风险和累积发病率按年龄和时间段进行比较。结果：我们在1960年1月1日至1979年12月31日期间发现了412例癫痫发作患者。50岁和80岁的终生风险分别为1.6%和3.0%；50岁和80岁的累积发病率分别为1.7%和3.4%。在不同的癫痫病因中也发现了类似的差异。到87岁的终生风险从1960-1969年的3.5%上升到1970-1979年的4.2%。结论：每26人中就有1人会在一生中患上癫痫。终生风险提供了个人在其剩余一生中患癫痫的风险估计值，转化为预计会患癫痫的人数，并协助卫生保健规划人员估计癫痫服务需求。神经病学(R) 2011；76:汽车出行
Objectives: Previous studies that have assessed the risk of developing epilepsy have failed to account for the competing risk of death, significant in the elderly where epilepsy incidence is highest. We report the lifetime risk for epilepsy, accounting for the competing risk of mortality.Methods: Lifetime risk and cumulative incidence of epilepsy were examined among Rochester, MN, residents between 1960 and 1979. Age-, gender-, and calendar year-specific deaths were obtained for Rochester, MN. Lifetime risk was calculated as the conditional probability of developing epilepsy by a specific age for a person reaching that age who had not yet developed epilepsy. Lifetime risk and cumulative incidence were compared for age and time period.Results: We identified 412 individuals with incident epilepsy diagnosed between January 1, 1960, and December 31, 1979. Lifetime risk was 1.6% to age 50 and 3.0% to age 80; cumulative incidence was 1.7% to age 50 and 3.4% to age 80. Similar differences were seen across epilepsy etiologies. Lifetime risk through 87 years of age increased over time from 3.5% in 1960-1969 to 4.2% in 1970-1979.Conclusions: One in 26 people will develop epilepsy during their lifetime. Lifetime risk provides an estimate of an individual's risk for epilepsy over his or her remaining lifetime, translates into the number of people who are expected to develop epilepsy, and assists health care planners as they estimate service needs for epilepsy. Neurology (R) 2011; 76: 23-27