Deriving tree growth models from stand models based on the self-thinning rule of Chinese fir plantations
Deriving tree growth models from stand models based on the self-thinning rule of Chinese fir plantations
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DOI：
10.3832/ifor3792-014
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发表时间：
2022-02
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
X. Zhang;Qv Cao;Y. Qu;J. Zhang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
X. Zhang;Qv Cao;Y. Qu;J. Zhang
张雄庆，曹广，曲彦成，张建国 (1) 森林发育过程中通常会发生由密度依赖性死亡引起的自我疏伐。为了改进对气候变化下森林演替过程中此类过程的预测，需要可靠的林分水平模型。在本研究中，我们根据中国亚热带杉木人工林对气候敏感的自我间伐规律，通过林分生长和生存模型推导出树木直径和生存模型，开发了树木和林分水平模型的集成系统。由此产生的集成系统具有统一的数学结构，应在树木和林分层面提供一致的估计。林分和树木水平的预测都是合理的。由于从树木模型输出聚合的林分水平值与直接从林分模型预测的值不同，因此采用分解方法来提供不同分辨率模型之间的数值一致性。与未调整的方法相比，分解方法的预测对于树木存活率稍差，但对于树木直径稍好。由于林分模型是在气候敏感的自疏伐轨迹下开发的，集成系统可以提供合理的预测，有助于在气候变化下管理杉木人工林。
Xiongqing Zhang , Quang V Cao , Yancheng Qu , Jianguo Zhang (1) Self-thinning due to density-dependent mortality usually occurs during the forest development. To improve predictions of such processes during forest successions under climate change, reliable stand-level models are needed. In this study, we developed an integrated system of treeand stand-level models by deriving tree diameter and survival models from stand growth and survival models based on climate-sensitive self-thinning rule of Chinese fir plantations in subtropical China. The resulting integrated system, having a unified mathematical structure, should provide consistent estimates at both tree and stand levels. Predictions were reasonable at both stand and tree levels. Because stand-level values aggregated from the tree model outputs are different from those predicted directly from the stand models, the disaggregation approach was applied to provide numerical consistency between models of different resolutions. Compared to the unadjusted approach, predictions from the disaggregation approach were slightly worse for tree survival but slightly better for tree diameter. Because the stand models were developed under the climatesensitive self-thinning trajectory, the integrated system could offer reasonable predictions that could aid in managing Chinese fir plantations under climate change.