Impact of tropical cyclones on flood risk in southeastern China: Spatial patterns, causes and implications
Impact of tropical cyclones on flood risk in southeastern China: Spatial patterns, causes and implications
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.02.004
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发表时间：
2017-03
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Qiang Zhang;Xihui Gu;P. Shi;V. Singh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Qiang Zhang;Xihui Gu;P. Shi;V. Singh
利用中国62个水文站1951-2014年的洪峰资料和热带气旋路径，对热带气旋引起的洪水进行了划分，并研究了洪水发生与热带气旋的关系。在此基础上，评价了TCS对洪水规模和频率的影响。结果表明，影响洪涝发生的外部因素不止一个，即对流降水和与热带气旋有关的强降水。总体而言，登陆的热带气旋事件对粤东、粤西地区洪涝灾害的发生有至关重要的影响。山区地形限制了热带气旋事件的北传，从而限制了其对北部洪涝灾害的影响。在北部和东部地区发生的10次最大洪灾中，有60%以上是由TCS引起的，因此它们显著地改变了洪峰的概率分布，增加了广义极值概率分布模型的位置和尺度参数。因此，制定缓解沿海洪灾的措施需要考虑到TCS的发生。
Using flood peaks data from 62 hydrological stations covering a period of 1951–2014 and tropical cyclone (TC) tracks, floods due to TCs were differentiated and relations between occurrences of floods and TCs were investigated. Then, the impact of TCs on the flood magnitude and frequency was evaluated. Results indicated that there was more than one external influencing factor for flood occurrences, i.e. convective precipitation and TC-related heavy precipitation. In general, the landed TC events have a crucial influence on the occurrence of floods in eastern and western parts of Guangdong province. The mountainous topography limits the northward propagation of TC events and hence limits their impact on the occurrence of floods in the northern part. More than 60% of the largest 10 hazardous floods in the northern and eastern parts were attributed to TCs and hence they significantly modified the probability distributions of flood peaks, increasing the location and scale parameters of the generalized extreme value (GEV) probability distribution model. Therefore, development of measures for mitigation of coastal flooding would need to consider the occurrences of TCs.