Persistent problems in the construction of matrix population models
Persistent problems in the construction of matrix population models
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.03.011
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发表时间：
2019-08-24
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Wiesner, Soeren
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kendall, Bruce E.;Fujiwara, Masami;Wiesner, Soeren
矩阵人口模型（MPM）是将人口和生活史信息转化为可用于解决广泛研究主题的形式的强大工具，例如预测人口动态，评估压力对人口的影响，以及研究生活史进化。然而，这些研究的可靠性取决于MPM的构建方式，准确地反映了物种的生活史。我们强调了在已发表的MPM中经常遇到的三个错误：（1）未能将存活率包括在生育系数中;（2）在第一次繁殖时引入一年的年龄延迟;（3）错误地计算出阶段类的生长率。我们回顾了这些错误的来源，并提供了新的分析，揭示了这些错误对模型预测的影响，以狮子鱼和美洲鳄模型为例。为了量化此类错误的发生率，我们检查了COMADRE动物矩阵数据库中模型基础的原始出版物并对其进行评分。在已发表的研究中，前两个错误分别出现在34%和62%的研究中;几乎所有的研究都是在使用生命周期的“繁殖后普查”表示的模型中（其中新生儿-蛋，新生儿，雏鸟等-明确包括在内）。在阶段可能持续时间超过一个时间步长的研究中，53%的研究使用不适当的公式来估计渐近人口增长率或其对人口统计参数的敏感性。这些结果表明，可能需要进一步的努力，教育生物学家的建设MPM，也许在音乐会与新的软件工具的开发。此外，许多基于MPM的研究的结论可能需要重新审查，使用COMADRE数据库的综合研究需要伴随着对基础研究的仔细审查。
Matrix population models (MPMs) are powerful tools for translating demographic and life history information into a form that can be used to address a wide range of research topics, such as projecting population dynamics, evaluating stressor impacts on populations, and studying life history evolution. However, the reliability of such studies depends on the MPM being constructed in a way that accurately reflects the species' life history. We highlight three errors commonly encountered in published MPMs: (1) failing to include survival in the fertility coefficient; (2) introducing a one-year delay in age at first reproduction; and (3) incorrectly calculating the growth rate out of a stage class. We review the sources of such errors and provide new analyses revealing the impact of such errors on model predictions, using lionfish and American alligator models as examples. To quantify the prevalence of such errors we examined and scored the original publications underlying the models in the COMADRE Animal Matrix Database. The first two errors were found in 34% and 62%, respectively, of the published studies; nearly all were in models that used a "postbreeding census" representation of the life cycle (in which newborns-eggs, neonates, fledglings, etc.-are explicitly included). Of the studies where stages may last longer than one time step, 53% constructed the growth rate using inappropriate formulas for estimating the asymptotic population growth rate or its sensitivity to demographic parameters. These results suggest that further efforts may be required to educate biologists on the construction of MPMs, perhaps in concert with the development of new software tools. Furthermore, the conclusions of many studies that are based on MPMs may need to be re-examined, and synthetic studies using the COMADRE Database need to be accompanied by careful examination of the underlying studies.