Origin and Destination Estimation in New York City with Automated Fare System Data
Origin and Destination Estimation in New York City with Automated Fare System Data
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DOI：
10.3141/1817-24
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发表时间：
2002
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
J. Barry;R. Newhouser;Adam Rahbee;Shermeen Sayeda
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Barry;R. Newhouser;Adam Rahbee;Shermeen Sayeda
纽约市交通局的自动售检票系统称为 MetroCard，是一个仅限入口的系统，记录 MetroCard 的序列号以及每次使用的时间和地点（地铁十字转门或公交车号码）。描述了一种使用 MetroCard 信息估计车站到车站出发地和目的地 (O-D) 行程表的方法。关键是确定每张 MetroCard 一天中的出行顺序。这是通过按序列号和时间对 MetroCard 信息进行排序，然后为每个 MetroCard 提取行程顺序和每次行程起点所使用的车站来完成的。一组简单的算法应用于每组 MetroCard 行程，以推断每个出发站的目的地站。这些算法基于两个主要假设。首先，很大一部分乘客会返回上一次行程的目的地站开始下一次行程。其次，很大一部分乘客在当天第一次行程开始的车站结束了当天的最后一次行程。这些假设通过纽约大都会交通委员会收集的旅行日记信息进行了测试。该日记信息证实，这两种假设对于很大比例 (90%) 的地铁用户来说都是正确的。通过将推断的目的地总数与一天中不同时间的车站出口数量进行比较，并使用行程分配模型估计峰值负载点乘客量，进一步验证了输出结果。该项目的主要应用是描述服务规划的出行模式并创建 O-D 出行表作为出行分配模型的输入。行程分配模型用于通过使用现有或修改后的服务编码的地铁网络来确定高峰负载点和其他位置的列车乘客量。这些乘客量用于服务规划和调度以及量化旅行模式。这种方法消除了定期进行全系统 O-D 调查的需要，这种调查既昂贵又耗时。新方法不需要进行调查，并消除了反应偏差的来源，例如某些人口群体的低反应率。 MetroCard 的市场份额目前为 80%，并且还在不断增加。 MetroCard 数据每年 365 天连续可用，这使得 O-D 数据估算可以重复多天，以提高准确性或考虑季节性。
New York City Transit’s automated fare collection system, known as MetroCard, is an entry-only system that records the serial number of the MetroCard and the time and location (subway turnstile or bus number) of each use. A methodology that estimates station-to-station origin and destination (O-D) trip tables by using this MetroCard information is described. The key is to determine the sequence of trips made throughout a day on each MetroCard. This is accomplished by sorting the MetroCard information by serial number and time and then extracting, for each MetroCard, the sequence of the trips and the station used at the origin of each trip. A set of straightforward algorithms is applied to each set of MetroCard trips to infer a destination station for each origin station. The algorithms are based on two primary assumptions. First, a high percentage of riders return to the destination station of their previous trip to begin their next trip. Second, a high percentage of riders end their last trip of the day at the station where they began their first trip of the day. These assumptions were tested by using travel diary information collected by the New York Metropolitan Transportation Council. This diary information confirmed that both assumptions are correct for a high percentage (90%) of subway users. The output was further validated by comparing inferred destination totals to station exit counts by time of day and by estimating peak load point passenger volumes by using a trip assignment model. The major applications of this project are to describe travel patterns for service planning and to create O-D trip tables as input to a trip assignment model. The trip assignment model is used to determine passenger volumes on trains at peak load points and other locations by using a subway network coded with existing or modified service. These passenger volumes are used for service planning and scheduling and to quantify travel patterns. This methodology eliminates the need for periodic systemwide O-D surveys that are costly and time-consuming. The new method requires no surveying and eliminates sources of response bias, such as low response rates for certain demographic groups. The MetroCard market share is currently 80% and increasing. MetroCard data are available continuously 365 days a year, which allows O-D data estimation to be repeated for multiple days to improve accuracy or to account for seasonality.