A mixture model of discontinuous development in heavy drinking from ages 18 to 30: The role of college enrollment
A mixture model of discontinuous development in heavy drinking from ages 18 to 30: The role of college enrollment
复制标题
DOI：
10.15288/jsa.2006.67.552
复制
发表时间：
2006-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Collins, Linda M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lanza, Stephanie T.;Collins, Linda M.
目的：本研究的目的是说明使用潜在类分析来检查随着时间的推移行为的变化。在全国样本中探索了18至30岁的大量饮酒模式;探索了大学入学与大量饮酒途径之间的关系，特别是那些导致成年人大量饮酒的途径。方法：使用重复测量的潜在类分析来估计通过阶段顺序过程的共同途径。在一个分类变量（存在或不存在大量饮酒）的发展的共同模式估计和大学入学率是一个分组变量。数据来自全国青年纵向调查（N = 1，265）。结果如下：确定了酗酒的八种模式：没有酗酒（53.7%）;仅青年期（3.7%）;青年和成年（3.7%）;仅大学年龄（2.6%）;大学年龄、青年期和成年期（8.7%）;高中和大学年龄（4.4%）;高中，大学年龄和年轻成年（6.3%）;和持续大量饮酒（16.9%）。结论：我们没有发现任何证据表明，在研究的四个发展阶段中，大学入学的人酗酒的流行率超过了那些没有入学的人。事实上，有证据表明，上大学似乎是年轻人和成年人酗酒的保护因素。大学入学的人更经常表现出一种模式，其特征是在大学年龄期间大量饮酒，在大学之前和之后没有大量饮酒，而在高中或大学年龄期间没有大量饮酒的未入学的人成年酗酒的风险增加。
Objective: The purpose of this study was to illustrate the use of latent class analysis to examine change in behavior over time. Patterns of heavy drinking from ages 18 to 30 were explored in a national sample; the relationship between college enrollment and pathways of heavy drinking, particularly those leading to adult heavy drinking, was explored. Method: Latent class analysis for repeated measures is used to estimate common pathways through a stage-sequential process. Common patterns of development in a categorical variable (presence or absence of heavy drinking) are estimated and college enrollment is a grouping variable. Data were from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (N = 1,265). Results: Eight patterns of heavy drinking were identified: no heavy drinking (53.7%); young adulthood only (3.7%); young adulthood and adulthood (3.7%); college age only (2.6%); college age, young adulthood, and adulthood (8.7%); high school and college age (4.4%); high school, college age, and young adulthood (6.3%); and persistent heavy drinking (16.9%). Conclusions: We found no evidence that prevalence of heavy drinking for those enrolled in college exceeds the prevalence for those not enrolled at any of the four developmental periods studied. In fact, there is some evidence that being enrolled in college appears to be a protective factor for young adult and adult heavy drinking. College-enrolled individuals more often show a pattern characterized by heavy drinking during college ages only, with no heavy drinking prior to and after the college years, whereas nonenrolled individuals not drinking heavily during high school or college ages are at increased risk for adult heavy drinking.