Debris-flow susceptibility assessment through cellular automata modeling: an example from 15–16 December 1999 disaster at Cervinara and San Martino Valle Caudina (Campania, southern Italy)
Debris-flow susceptibility assessment through cellular automata modeling: an example from 15–16 December 1999 disaster at Cervinara and San Martino Valle Caudina (Campania, southern Italy)
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DOI：
10.5194/nhess-3-457-2003
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发表时间：
2003-10
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
G. Iovine;S. D. Gregorio;V. Lupiano
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
G. Iovine;S. D. Gregorio;V. Lupiano
抽象的。1999年12月15日至16日，暴雨严重袭击坎帕尼亚地区（意大利南部），在San Martino瓦莱Caudina-Cervinara地区的山坡上引发了许多泥石流。土壤滑动起源于覆盖在碳酸盐骨架上的土壤覆盖层的风化火山岩地幔。泥石流变成基质和大块的快速流动混合物，下坡侵蚀土壤覆盖层，增加其原始体积。在斜坡的底部，泥石流冲击着城市地区，造成了受害者和严重的破坏（Vittori等人，2000年）。从最近坎帕尼亚地区管理局（派-水文地质设置计划，出版中）对坎帕尼亚滑坡风险状况进行的研究开始，对上述村庄的选定区域进行了泥石流敏感性评估。根据这项研究，这些地区实际上是同一村庄行政边界内风险最高的地区（“危险区”）。我们的敏感性分析是通过应用SCIDDICA S3-hex --一种六角形元胞自动机模型（von Neumann，1966年）进行的，该模型是专门为模拟泥石流的空间演变而开发的（Iovine等人，2002年）。为了将该模型应用于一个给定的研究领域，详细的地形数据和地图上的可侵蚀的土壤覆盖层的基岩上的的BROMF必须提供（作为输入矩阵）;此外，范围和位置的滑坡源也必须给出。真实的山体滑坡，1999年冬季触发的那些中选择的，已首先用于校准SCIDDICA S3十六进制和定义“最佳”的参数值。通过定量比较模拟与实际情况，利用地理信息系统工具进行了校准：最佳值对应于最佳模拟。通过地质评价，新现象的源位置，然后被假设在HR区。这些新病例的初步数量是通过考虑1999年山体滑坡的实际统计数据来估计的。最后，通过合并模拟结果，确定了所考虑的区域的磁化率区划。在本文中，旨在说明潜在的泥石流危险性分析的模式SCIDDICA S3-hex的，一个方法的例子Vallicelle HR区的敏感性区划。
Abstract. On 15–16 December 1999, heavy rainfall severely stroke Campania region (southern Italy), triggering numerous debris flows on the slopes of the San Martino Valle Caudina-Cervinara area. Soil slips originated within the weathered volcaniclastic mantle of soil cover overlying the carbonate skeleton of the massif. Debris slides turned into fast flowing mixtures of matrix and large blocks, downslope eroding the soil cover and increasing their original volume. At the base of the slopes, debris flows impacted on the urban areas, causing victims and severe destruction (Vittori et al., 2000). Starting from a recent study on landslide risk conditions in Campania, carried out by the Regional Authority (PAI –Hydrogeological setting plan, in press), an evaluation of the debris-flow susceptibility has been performed for selected areas of the above mentioned villages. According to that study, such zones would be in fact characterised by the highest risk levels within the administrative boundaries of the same villages ("HR-zones"). Our susceptibility analysis has been performed by applying SCIDDICA S3–hex – a hexagonal Cellular Automata model (von Neumann, 1966), specifically developed for simulating the spatial evolution of debris flows (Iovine et al., 2002). In order to apply the model to a given study area, detailed topographic data and a map of the erodable soil cover overlying the bedrock of the massif must be provided (as input matrices); moreover, extent and location of landslide source must also be given. Real landslides, selected among those triggered on winter 1999, have first been utilised for calibrating SCIDDICA S3–hex and for defining "optimal" values for parameters. Calibration has been carried out with a GIS tool, by quantitatively comparing simulations with actual cases: optimal values correspond to best simulations. Through geological evaluations, source locations of new phenomena have then been hypothesised within the HR-zones. Initial volume for these new cases has been estimated by considering the actual statistics of the 1999 landslides. Finally, by merging the results of simulations, a deterministic susceptibility zonation of the considered area has been obtained. In this paper, aiming at illustrating the potential for debris-flow hazard analyses of the model SCIDDICA S3–hex, a methodological example of susceptibility zonation of the Vallicelle HR-zone is presented.