Climate change, nutrient pollution and the bargain of Dr Faustus
Climate change, nutrient pollution and the bargain of Dr Faustus
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2427.2009.02381.x
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发表时间：
2010-01
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
B. Moss
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
B. Moss
总结1。浮士德博士的传说在欧洲文学、戏剧和音乐中反复出现，表明它具有深远的意义。在我们与生物圈的关系中，我们也许做了一个浮士德式的交易。作为无限制地使用地球资源的回报，我们可能已经抵押了一个长期的未来。目前，我们希望重新协商协议，但在小字条款中有一些细节——关于气候变化、生态系统的破坏以及随之而来的向水道释放营养物质的条款，这些都是我们忽视的。自然生物群系决定了生物圈维持在一种有利于我们特定生物化学的状态。部分机制是通过碳作为生物沉积物的储存来调节大气气体成分。2. 浅水湖泊和湿地，以及潮湿土壤的苔原和森林，储存碳的速度比全球海洋要快得多。在重复的实验池塘中，研究了变暖加上富营养化程度对浅湖系统的影响。第一个实验使用了适量的营养添加和3°C的温度升高。这种变暖导致磷的可用性有所增加，由一种引入的温水物种——主要的水生植物群落——接管，并且严重缺氧的频率增加，偶尔会造成鱼类死亡。3. 第二个实验在与第一个实验相似的环境背景下升高了4°C，但营养环境更接近于低地富营养化水域。特别是在适度的氮负荷下，浮浮萍变得非常丰富，尽管水下植物仍然存在。氧浓度明显下降。最终鱼类生物量在变暖时下降了60%，在使用最高营养负荷时下降了80%，但变暖和即使是适度的营养的结合也经常使氧气在一夜之间降至零，并杀死了所有的鱼。由于所使用的鱼（棘鱼）具有极强的弹性，这对许多其他欧洲鱼类都有严重的影响。4. 氧曲线的分析允许计算代谢参数的坦克系统。与光合作用相比，增温和养分添加均显著增加了群落呼吸作用。外推表明，如果这种现象广泛存在，可能会导致比1990年代32 Gt的年大气净积累速率增加约18 Gt。由于政府间气候变化专门委员会的未来气候变化模型不包括这种生物反馈，因此它们可能严重低估了未来气温上升及其后果。5. 主题含义：我们不知道我们的浮士德式交易是否可以重新谈判；我们的政治和社会机构缺乏知识，几乎不接受生物圈过程的重要性，我们的科学机构是简化论者，符合社会其他人的价值观。目前减缓气候变化的方法只关注人类机构的碳排放，很少或根本没有提到自然系统。未来非常不确定。
Summary 1. The legend of Dr Faustus crops up repeatedly in European literature, drama and music, suggesting that it has profound meaning. In our relationship with the biosphere we have perhaps made a Faustian bargain. In return for unrestrained use of the Earth’s resources, we may have mortgaged a long-term future. Currently we are hoping to renegotiate the bargain, but there is detail in the small-print-clauses about climate change, destruction of ecosystems and consequent release of nutrients to waterways that we have ignored. Natural biomes determine that the biosphere is maintained in a state favourable to our particular biochemistry. Part of the mechanism is regulation of atmospheric gas composition through storage of carbon as biological deposits. 2. Shallow lakes and wetlands, and the tundras and forests of wet soil, store carbon at a much greater rate than the global ocean. The influence, on shallow lake systems, of warming coupled with degrees of eutrophication has been studied in replicated experimental ponds. The first experiment used modest nutrient addition and a 3 °C rise in temperature. Such warming led to some increase in phosphorus availability, takeover by an introduced warm-water species, Lagarosiphon major of the submerged plant community, and an increase in the frequency of severe deoxygenation, with occasional fish kills. 3. The second experiment used a rise of 4 °C against a similar ambient background to that of the first experiment, but a nutrient environment much closer to that of lowland eutrophicated waters. Especially with moderate nitrogen loading, floating duckweeds became very abundant, though submerged plants persisted. Oxygen concentrations fell markedly. Final fish biomass fell by 60% on warming and 80% at the highest nutrient loading used, but the combination of warming and even modest nutrients brought oxygen frequently to zero overnight and killed all the fish. Because the fish used (Gasterosteus aculeatus) were extremely resilient, there are severe implications for many other European fish species. 4. Analysis of oxygen curves allowed calculation of metabolic parameters of the tank systems. Both warming and nutrient addition substantially increased community respiration compared with photosynthesis. Extrapolation suggests that if this phenomenon is widespread, an increase of about 1.8 Gt over the 1990’s net annual atmospheric accumulation rate of 3.2 Gt might result. Since the IPCC models of future climate change do not include such biological feedbacks, they may thus seriously underestimate the future rise in temperature and its consequences. 5. Thematic implications: we do not know if our Faustian bargain can be renegotiated; our political and social institutions are poorly equipped in knowledge and barely accept the importance of biosphere processes, and our scientific establishment is reductionist and conforms to the values of the rest of society. Current approaches to mitigation of climate change attend only to carbon release from human institutions, with little or no reference to natural systems. The future is exceptionally uncertain.