Bayesian Calibration of Electrophysiology Models Using Restitution Curve Emulators.

Bayesian Calibration of Electrophysiology Models Using Restitution Curve Emulators.
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DOI:
10.3389/fphys.2021.693015
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发表时间:
2021
影响因子:
4
通讯作者:
Clayton RH
Clayton RH
中科院分区:
医学2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Coveney S;Corrado C;Oakley JE;Wilkinson RD;Niederer SA;Clayton RH

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心脏电生理学模型的校准是模型个性化的一个基本方面,用于预测心脏治疗的结果、针对一系列表型的设备性能的模拟测试以及心脏功能的基础研究。呼吸曲线提供关于组织功能的信息,并且可以使用临床上可行的测量协议来测量。我们引入新的“恢复曲线仿真器”作为概率模型进行模型探索,灵敏度分析,贝叶斯校准噪声数据。这些仿真器是通过使用主成分分析分解恢复曲线并使用高斯过程相对于模型参数对所得坐标进行建模来构建的。恢复曲线仿真器可用于通过恢复曲线分量的灵敏度分析和给定噪声测量的模型参数的后验分布的快速推断来研究参数可识别性。参数的后验不确定性对于从校准模型进行预测至关重要,因为许多参数设置可以与测量数据一致,但在测量协议未有效探测的条件下会产生非常不同的模型行为。因此,呼吸曲线仿真器是有前途的概率工具,用于校准电生理模型。
Calibration of cardiac electrophysiology models is a fundamental aspect of model personalization for predicting the outcomes of cardiac therapies, simulation testing of device performance for a range of phenotypes, and for fundamental research into cardiac function. Restitution curves provide information on tissue function and can be measured using clinically feasible measurement protocols. We introduce novel “restitution curve emulators” as probabilistic models for performing model exploration, sensitivity analysis, and Bayesian calibration to noisy data. These emulators are built by decomposing restitution curves using principal component analysis and modeling the resulting coordinates with respect to model parameters using Gaussian processes. Restitution curve emulators can be used to study parameter identifiability via sensitivity analysis of restitution curve components and rapid inference of the posterior distribution of model parameters given noisy measurements. Posterior uncertainty about parameters is critical for making predictions from calibrated models, since many parameter settings can be consistent with measured data and yet produce very different model behaviors under conditions not effectively probed by the measurement protocols. Restitution curve emulators are therefore promising probabilistic tools for calibrating electrophysiology models.
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