Recent temporal trend in modelled soil water deficit over Europe driven by meteorological observations
Recent temporal trend in modelled soil water deficit over Europe driven by meteorological observations
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由气象观测驱动的欧洲土壤水分亏缺模型近期时间趋势
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Vogt
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Cammalleri;F. Micale;J. Vogt
Lisflood降雨径流模型由E-OBS（http：//www.ecad.eu/download/ensember/ensember.php）网格化气象数据集强制执行，以生成1951-2013年期间根区土壤水分的5 km分辨率地图，用于评估欧洲土壤水分亏缺的显著趋势。趋势分析的结果强调了欧洲域的明确细分为两个子区域：西南部分主要是积极的趋势（土壤干燥）和东北部分土壤水分亏缺减少。总体而言，根据Mann-Kendall检验和错误发现率（FDR）程序（p = 0.05），约19%的域受到显著线性趋势的影响，其中约11.6%具有负（润湿）斜率，7.6%具有正（干燥）斜率。空间聚类分析确定了11个受重大趋势影响的主要地区（延伸范围> 10 000平方公里），包括埃布罗和加龙河流域（正斜率）和德涅斯特河流域（负趋势）。国家和次国家层面的最终分析强调，大多数观察到的趋势在区域（NUTS-1）空间尺度上汇总时也很重要，检测水管理平面最有可能受到影响的行政区域。由于干燥和湿润过程主要分别发生在模拟域中已经最干燥和最潮湿的子区域，因此所获得的结果表明欧洲缺水的进一步两极分化。
The Lisflood rainfall‐runoff model was forced by the E‐OBS (http://www.ecad.eu/download/ensembles/ensembles.php) gridded meteorological dataset in order to produce 5‐km resolution maps of root zone soil moisture for the period 1951–2013, which were used to evaluate the presence of significant trends in soil water deficit over Europe. The results of the trend analysis highlighted a clear subdivision of the European domain into two sub‐regions: a southwest portion with mostly positive trends (drying of the soil) and a northeast part with decreasing soil water deficit. Overall, about 19% of the domain was affected by a significant linear trend according to the Mann‐Kendall test and the false discovery rate (FDR) procedure (p = 0.05), with about 11.6% having a negative (wetting) and 7.6% a positive (drying) slope. A spatial cluster analysis identified 11 major areas (with extension > 10 000 km2) affected by significant trends, including the Ebro and Garonne basins (for positive slopes) and the Dniester watershed (for negative trends). A final analysis at national and sub‐national levels highlights that most of the observed trends are also significant when aggregated at a regional (NUTS‐1) spatial scale, detecting the administrative areas where water management planes are most likely affected. As drying and wetting processes are occurring mainly in the already driest and wettest sub‐areas of the modelling domain, respectively, the obtained results suggest a further polarization of the water deficit in Europe.