Human mobility patterns predict divergent epidemic dynamics among cities
Human mobility patterns predict divergent epidemic dynamics among cities
复制标题
DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2013.0763
复制
发表时间：
2013-09-07
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Ellner, Stephen P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dalziel, Benjamin D.;Pourbohloul, Babak;Ellner, Stephen P.
传染病的流行动态因城市而异，但尚不清楚这是如何由个人之间的传染性接触模式造成的。在这里，我们要问的是，人类流动模式的系统性差异是否足以导致城市间传染病流行动态的变化，通过宿主之间的偶然接触传播。我们分析了加拿大48个城市每个全职工人的流动模式的人口普查数据，发现人口规模和流动模式的组织水平之间存在幂律关系，在较大的城市，更大比例的工人前往工作在几个重点地点。同样规模的城市在流动模式的组织水平上也各不相同，平均相当于人口规模变化2.64倍时的预期变化。流动模式的系统性变化足以导致城市之间的传染病动态的显着差异，甚至在相同规模的城市之间，根据基于个人的模型，空气传播的病原体传播参数化的流动数据。这表明，城市之间的宿主接触模式的差异足以驱动传染病动态的差异，并提供了一个框架，用于测试城市一级疾病数据中宿主流动模式的影响。
The epidemic dynamics of infectious diseases vary among cities, but it is unclear how this is caused by patterns of infectious contact among individuals. Here, we ask whether systematic differences in human mobility patterns are sufficient to cause inter-city variation in epidemic dynamics for infectious diseases spread by casual contact between hosts. We analyse census data on the mobility patterns of every full-time worker in 48 Canadian cities, finding a power-law relationship between population size and the level of organization in mobility patterns, where in larger cities, a greater fraction of workers travel to work in a few focal locations. Similarly sized cities also vary in the level of organization in their mobility patterns, equivalent on average to the variation expected from a 2.64-fold change in population size. Systematic variation in mobility patterns is sufficient to cause significant differences among cities in infectious disease dynamics-even among cities of the same size-according to an individual-based model of airborne pathogen transmission parametrized with the mobility data. This suggests that differences among cities in host contact patterns are sufficient to drive differences in infectious disease dynamics and provides a framework for testing the effects of host mobility patterns in city-level disease data.