Evaluating kindergarten retention policy: A case study of causal inference for multilevel observational data
Evaluating kindergarten retention policy: A case study of causal inference for multilevel observational data
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评估幼儿园保留政策： 多层次观察数据因果推断案例研究
DOI：
10.1198/016214506000000447
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发表时间：
2006-09-01
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Raudenbush, Stephen W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hong, Guanglei;Raudenbush, Stephen W.
本文考虑的是留住低成绩儿童上幼儿园而不是将他们提升到一年级的政策。根据鲁宾提出的稳定的单位治疗价值假设(SUTVA)，每个面临保留风险的儿童都有两种潜在的结果：Y(1)如果保留，Y(0)如果促进。但SUTVA是值得怀疑的，因为一个孩子的潜在结果可能取决于孩子上的是哪所学校，也取决于其他孩子的治疗任务。我们开发了一个因果模型，允许学校分配和同伴治疗影响潜在的结果。我们提出了一个辨识性的假设，即同伴效应可以通过学校治疗作业向量的标量函数来总结。然后，利用具有全国代表性的大样本，我们估计了(1)在保留率较低的学校中留校而不是升入一年级的影响，(2)保留率较高的学校的保留率影响，以及(3)与保留率高的学校相比，保留率低的学校晋升的效果。这第三个效应在SUTVA下是不能定义的。我们使用多水平倾向分数分层来近似两阶段实验。在第一阶段，完整的学校在协变量上被分块，然后在块内随机分配一项政策，即在幼儿园保留相对较多或较少的儿童。在第二阶段，学校内部的“高危”学生被阻止在协变量上，然后随机分配到留住。我们发现，有证据表明，留任学生平均学到的东西比被提拔的类似儿童要少，这一结果在高保留率和低保留率学校都能找到。我们没有发现同伴治疗对低风险学生的影响。
This article considers the policy of retaining low-achieving children in kindergarten rather than promoting them to first grade. Under the stable unit treatment value assumption (SUTVA) as articulated by Rubin, each child at risk of retention has two potential outcomes: Y(1) if retained and Y(0) if promoted. But SUTVA is questionable, because a child's potential outcomes will plausibly depend on which school that child attends and also on treatment assignments of other children. We develop a causal model that allows school assignment and peer treatments to affect potential outcomes. We impose an identifying assumption that peer effects can be summarized through a scalar function of the vector of treatment assignments in a school. Using a large, nationally representative sample, we then estimate (1) the effect of being retained in kindergarten rather than being promoted to the first grade in schools having a low retention rate, (2) the retention effect in schools having a high retention rate, and (3) the effect of being promoted in a low-retention school as compared to being promoted in a high-retention school. This third effect is not definable under SUTVA. We use multilevel propensity score stratification to approximate a two-stage experiment. At the first stage, intact schools are blocked on covariates and then, within blocks, randomly assigned to a policy of retaining comparatively more or fewer children in kindergarten. At the second stage, "at-risk" students within schools are blocked on covariates and then assigned at random to be retained. We find evidence that retainees learned less on average than did similar children who were promoted, a result found in both high-retention and low-retention schools. We do not detect a peer treatment effect on low-risk students.