Conditional Probability and the Cognitive Science of Conditional Reasoning
Conditional Probability and the Cognitive Science of Conditional Reasoning
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条件概率和条件推理的认知科学
DOI：
10.1111/1468-0017.00232
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发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
N. Chater
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Oaksford;N. Chater
本文讨论了在认知科学的条件推理的规范性和描述性文献之间的明显不匹配。描述心理学理论仍然把物质蕴涵看作是条件的规范理论。然而，在过去的20年里，在语言哲学和逻辑中，物质蕴涵可以解释日常指示性条件句的观点受到了严厉的批评。大多数人的观点现在显然倾向于主观条件概率解释。一个比较模型拟合练习表明，条件概率模型可以解释尽可能多的数据抽象的指示性条件推理任务的心理理论，补充材料的含义与各种合理的不合理的处理假设。因此，当人们被要求解决实验室推理任务时，他们可以被看作是简单地将他们的日常概率推理策略推广到这个新的环境中。
This paper addresses the apparent mismatch between the normative and descriptive literatures in the cognitive science of conditional reasoning. Descriptive psychological theories still regard material implication as the normative theory of the conditional. However, over the last 20 years in the philosophy of language and logic the idea that material implication can account for everyday indicative conditionals has been subject to severe criticism. The majority view is now apparently in favour of a subjective conditional probability interpretation. A comparative model fitting exercise is presented that shows that a conditional probability model can explain as much of the data on abstract indicative conditional reasoning tasks as psychological theories that supplement material implication with various rationally unjustified processing assumptions. Consequently, when people are asked to solve laboratory reasoning tasks, they can be seen as simply generalising their everyday probabilistic reasoning strategies to this novel context.
DOI：
10.1080/02724980244000053
发表时间：
2002-10-01
期刊：
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF EXPERIMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY SECTION A-HUMAN EXPERIMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY
影响因子：
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作者：
Hattori, M
通讯作者：
Hattori, M