Urban Energy Systems-猫眼课题宝

DOI：

10.1017/cbo9780511793677.024

发表时间：

2012-08

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其他

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作者：

A. Grubler;X. Bai;T. Buettner;S. Dhakal;D. Fisk;T. Ichinose;J. Keirstead;G. Sammer;D. Satterthwaite;N. Schulz;N. Shah;J. Steinberger;H. Weisz;G. Ahamer;T. Baynes;D. Curtis;M. Doherty;N. Eyre;J. Fujino;K. Hanaki;M. Kainuma;S. Kaneko;M. Lenzen;Jacqui A. Meyers;Hitomi Nakanishi;V. Novikova;K. S. Rajan;S. Seo;R. Shrestha;P. Shukla;A. Sverdlik;J. Sathaye

全球超过50%的人口已经生活在城市定居点，预计到2050年，城市地区将吸收几乎所有的全球人口增长，相当于新增约30亿人。在今后几十年里，许多发展中国家农村人口的增长将被流入城市的人口所掩盖。预计到2020年左右，全球农村人口将达到35亿的峰值，此后将下降，尽管存在不同的区域趋势。这增加了解决农村能源获取问题的紧迫性，但我们共同的未来将以城市为主。大部分城市增长将继续发生在中小型城市中心。这些小城市的增长带来了严重的政策挑战，尤其是在发展中国家。在小城市，基本缺乏指导政策的数据和信息，应对发展挑战的地方资源有限，治理和机构能力薄弱，需要在能力建设、遥感、信息和决策支持技术的新应用以及新的机构伙伴关系方面作出认真努力。虽然人口超过1000万的“特大城市”面临着独特的挑战，但它们对全球城市增长的贡献仍将相对较小。就能源而言，世界已经以城市为主。该评估估计，全球60-80%的最终能源使用来自城市，中心估计为75%。将国家能源（或温室气体清单）报告格式应用于城市规模和城市行政边界通常被称为“生产”核算方法，是上述全球环境评估估计的基础。

Executive Summary More than 50% of the global population already lives in urban settlements and urban areas are projected to absorb almost all the global population growth to 2050, amounting to some additional three billion people. Over the next decades the increase in rural population in many developing countries will be overshadowed by population flows to cities. Rural populations globally are expected to peak at a level of 3.5 billion people by around 2020 and decline thereafter, albeit with heterogeneous regional trends. This adds urgency in addressing rural energy access, but our common future will be predominantly urban. Most of urban growth will continue to occur in small-to medium-sized urban centers. Growth in these smaller cities poses serious policy challenges, especially in the developing world. In small cities, data and information to guide policy are largely absent, local resources to tackle development challenges are limited, and governance and institutional capacities are weak, requiring serious efforts in capacity building, novel applications of remote sensing, information, and decision support techniques, and new institutional partnerships. While ‘megacities’ with more than 10 million inhabitants have distinctive challenges, their contribution to global urban growth will remain comparatively small. Energy-wise, the world is already predominantly urban. This assessment estimates that between 60–80% of final energy use globally is urban, with a central estimate of 75%. Applying national energy (or GHG inventory) reporting formats to the urban scale and to urban administrative boundaries is often referred to as a ‘production’ accounting approach and underlies the above GEA estimate.

Urban Energy Systems

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