Assessment of climatically suitable area for Syrmaticus reevesii under climate change
Assessment of climatically suitable area for Syrmaticus reevesii under climate change
复制标题
气候变化下长尾雉气候适宜区评价
DOI：
10.3354/esr00668
复制
发表时间：
2015-01-01
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Ji, Liqiang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Feng, Xiao;Lin, Congtian;Ji, Liqiang
全球气候变化是对生物多样性的主要威胁之一。温室气体过量排放导致的全球变暖影响了物种的分布和生理，威胁到它们的生存。因此，预测和评估气候变化对物种分布的影响对生物多样性保护具有重要意义。本研究的目的是利用地理信息系统和生态位建模技术，评估未来气候情景对中国特有种白颈长尾雉（Syrmaticus reevesii）气候适宜区的范围和地理位置的影响。我们比较了模型预测在目前的气候与物种的历史范围和土地覆盖数据，这两者都使一个合理的评估，目前的气候适合的地区的物种。预测适合未来气候的地区显示出排放情景之间的差异，但出现了几个共同的趋势。具体而言，我们的研究结果表明，未来气候适宜区的S。气候适宜区的地理重心主要向西北方向移动。此外，我们还评估了自然保护区气候适宜区的未来变化。reevesii是已知的发生，并提供了在气候变化的情况下保护物种的建议。
Global climate change is one of the major threats to biodiversity. Global warming caused by the excess emission of greenhouse gases affects the distribution and physiology of species, and threatens their survival. Thus, predicting and evaluating the consequences of changing climates on species' distributions is important for biodiversity conservation. The goal of our study was to assess the influence of future climate scenarios on the extent and geographic location of climatically suitable areas for Reeves's pheasant Syrmaticus reevesii, a species endemic to China, using geographic information systems and ecological niche modeling techniques. We compared model prediction under present climate with the species' historical range and land-cover data, both of which enable a plausible assessment of present-day climatically suitable areas for the species. The areas predicted suitable under future climates showed differences among emission scenarios, but several common trends emerged. Specifically, our results indicated that future climatically suitable area for S. reevesii would decrease and shift to higher altitudes, and the geographic centroids of the climatically suitable areas would mainly move northwest. Additionally, we assessed future changes of climatically suitable areas in the nature reserves where S. reevesii is known to occur, and provided suggestions for conserving the species under climate change scenarios.