Assessing the Long-Term Performance of Cross-Sectoral Strategies for National Infrastructure
Assessing the Long-Term Performance of Cross-Sectoral Strategies for National Infrastructure
复制标题
评估国家基础设施跨部门战略的长期绩效
DOI：
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Watson
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文献类型：
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作者：
Jim W Hall;J. Henriques;A. Hickford;R. Nicholls;P. Baruah;M. Birkin;M. Chaudry;T. Curtis;N. Eyre;Cliff B. Jones;C. Kilsby;Alex Leathard;A. Lorenz;Nicolas Malleson;F. McLeod;W. Powrie;J. Preston;N. Rai;R. Street;A. Stringfellow;Chris Thoung;P. Tyler;Roberta Velykiene;G. Watson;J. Watson
国家基础设施系统（能源、交通、数字通信、水和废物）为社会提供基本服务。虽然这些系统大部分是以零敲碎打的方式发展起来的，但它们现在是一个综合的、高度相互依存的“系统的系统”。然而，了解国家基础设施的长期绩效轨迹已被证明是非常困难的，因为这些系统的复杂性（在物质和体制方面），因为很少有跨部门思考基础设施系统绩效的传统。在这里，提出了一种方法来分析国家多部门基础设施系统的性能在未来不确定的背景下，将需求的相互依赖性跨部门。三个对比策略被认为是基础设施的供应（容量密集型，容量受限，分散）和多属性的性能指标进行了分析，在低，中，高人口和经济增长的情况下。该方法说明使用英国和提供国家基础设施的长期战略的发展和测试的基础。它特别适用于成熟的工业经济体，这些经济体拥有大量现有基础设施，并面临着未来基础设施供应的挑战。
National infrastructure systems (energy, transport, digital communications, water, and waste) provide essential services to society. Although for the most part these systems developed in a piecemeal way, they are now an integrated and highly interdependent “system of systems.” However, understanding the long-term performance trajectory of national infrastructure has proved to be very difficult because of the complexity of these systems (in physical and institutional terms) and because there is little tradition of thinking cross-sectorally about infrastructure system performance. Here, a methodology is proposed for analyzing national multisectoral infrastructure systems performance in the context of uncertain futures, incorporating interdependencies in demand across sectors. Three contrasting strategies are considered for infrastructure provision (capacity intensive, capacity constrained, and decentralized) and multiattribute performance metrics are analyzed in the context of low, medium, and high demographic and economic growth scenarios. The approach is illustrated using Great Britain and provides the basis for the development and testing of long-term strategies for national infrastructure provision. It is especially applicable to mature industrial economics with a large stock of existing infrastructure and challenges of future infrastructure provision.