The effect of mandatory COVID-19 certificates on vaccine uptake: synthetic-control modelling of six countries.
The effect of mandatory COVID-19 certificates on vaccine uptake: synthetic-control modelling of six countries.
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DOI：
10.1016/s2468-2667(21)00273-5
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发表时间：
2022-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Rüttenauer T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Mills MC;Rüttenauer T
部分国家已引入强制性COVID-19认证（显示疫苗接种、近期阴性检测或康复证明）。我们的目的是调查认证对疫苗接种的影响。我们设计了一个综合控制模型，将6个引入认证（2021年4月至8月）的国家（丹麦、以色列、意大利、法国、德国和瑞士）与19个控制国家进行比较。我们利用病例、死亡、疫苗接种和国家特定信息的每日数据，得出了一个反事实趋势，估计如果没有引入证书，在类似情况下可能会发生什么。主要结果是每日COVID-19疫苗剂量。COVID-19认证导致预期实施前20天的疫苗接种增加，持续影响长达40天。干预前接种率低于平均水平的国家，与接种率已经达到平均水平或更高的国家相比，每日疫苗接种率的增加更为明显。在法国，每百万人口接种超过55 672（95% CI 49 668-73 707）剂疫苗，或按绝对值计算，强制认证前每百万人口接种3761 440（3 355 761-4 979 952）剂疫苗，认证后每百万人口接种72 151（37 940-114 140）剂疫苗（4 874 857 [2 563 396-7 711 769]剂）。 我们发现，在已经达到平均接种率的国家（德国）没有效果，或者在疫苗供应有限的时期（丹麦）引入证书时效果不明确。在引入认证后，年龄小于30岁的人的吸收率最高。与某些环境（夜总会和超过1000人的活动）相关的访问限制与20岁以下人群的摄入量增加有关。当认证扩展到更广泛的环境时，最年轻群体的接受率仍然很高，但30-49岁的人也有所增加。强制性COVID-19认证可能会增加疫苗接种，但需要在现有疫苗接种水平和犹豫、资格变化以及大流行轨迹的背景下考虑结果的解释和可转移性。Leverhulme Trust和欧洲研究理事会。
Mandatory COVID-19 certification (showing vaccination, recent negative test, or proof of recovery) has been introduced in some countries. We aimed to investigate the effect of certification on vaccine uptake. We designed a synthetic control model comparing six countries (Denmark, Israel, Italy, France, Germany, and Switzerland) that introduced certification (April–August, 2021), with 19 control countries. Using daily data on cases, deaths, vaccinations, and country-specific information, we produced a counterfactual trend estimating what might have happened in similar circumstances if certificates were not introduced. The main outcome was daily COVID-19 vaccine doses. COVID-19 certification led to increased vaccinations 20 days before implementation in anticipation, with a lasting effect up to 40 days after. Countries with pre-intervention uptake that was below average had a more pronounced increase in daily vaccinations compared with those where uptake was already average or higher. In France, doses exceeded 55 672 (95% CI 49 668–73 707) vaccines per million population or, in absolute terms, 3 761 440 (3 355 761–4 979 952) doses before mandatory certification and 72 151 (37 940–114 140) per million population after certification (4 874 857 [2 563 396–7 711 769] doses). We found no effect in countries that already had average uptake (Germany), or an unclear effect when certificates were introduced during a period of limited vaccine supply (Denmark). Increase in uptake was highest for people younger than 30 years after the introduction of certification. Access restrictions linked to certain settings (nightclubs and events with >1000 people) were associated with increased uptake in those younger than 20 years. When certification was extended to broader settings, uptake remained high in the youngest group, but increases were also observed in those aged 30–49 years. Mandatory COVID-19 certification could increase vaccine uptake, but interpretation and transferability of findings need to be considered in the context of pre-existing levels of vaccine uptake and hesitancy, eligibility changes, and the pandemic trajectory. Leverhulme Trust and European Research Council.