Futures: an exploration of scenarios for sustainable urban water management
Futures: an exploration of scenarios for sustainable urban water management
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DOI：
10.2166/wp.2008.014
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发表时间：
2008-08
期刊：
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
C. Makropoulos;F. Memon;C. Shirley-Smith;D. Butler
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Makropoulos;F. Memon;C. Shirley-Smith;D. Butler
本文讨论了与制定稳健、可持续的城市水管理战略所需的未来情景发展有关的问题。讨论了现有的应对未来情景的方法及其在城市而不是集水区规模的水管理中的使用，从传统到更激进，并试图对它们进行关键的比较。本文提出了一个情景变量生成的框架，并提供了其在城市水管理的组成部分分析中的可能实现的例子。选择了城市水的四个主要成分(雨水、饮用水、废水及其通过回收整合)，并通过监管、社会、经济、环境和技术驱动因素考察了它们在七种不同情景下的可能演变。预计这项工作将进一步支持人们对为不确定的未来提供长期战略规划工具的日益增长的兴趣。
The paper discusses issues related to the development of future scenarios appropriate for preparing robust, sustainable urban water management strategies. A discussion of existing approaches to future scenarios and their use in water management at an urban rather than catchment scale is included, from conventional to more radical, and their critical comparison is attempted. The paper presents a framework for scenario-variants generation and provides examples of its possible implementation in a component analysis of urban water management. Four major components of urban water are selected (stormwater, drinking water, wastewater and their integration through recycling) and their possible evolution under seven different scenarios is examined by means of regulatory, social, economic, environmental and technical drivers. It is anticipated that this work will further support the growing interest in providing tools for long term strategic planning into an uncertain future.