Diverse but uncertain responses of picophytoplankton lineages to future climate change
Diverse but uncertain responses of picophytoplankton lineages to future climate change
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DOI：
10.1002/lno.11951
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发表时间：
2021-10-20
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Martiny, Adam C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Flombaum, Pedro;Martiny, Adam C.
气候变化预计将改变海洋的物理和化学环境，但对浮游植物群体分布的数量影响尚不清楚。大多数地球系统模型（ESM）预测未来低纬度沃茨浮游植物的减少，与观察结果相矛盾，这些观察结果表明，微微浮游植物可以在温暖的沃茨达到高丰度。在这里，我们使用了一个历史和三个气候情景沿着与定量生态位模型项目原绿球藻，聚球藻，和picoeukaryotic浮游植物的分布为2100年。首先，我们发现全球的反应与原绿球藻和聚球藻丰度分别增加了50%和9%，picoeukaryotic浮游植物减少了8%。在低纬度，所有群体的丰度增加，聚球藻和picoeukaryotic浮游植物显示带的减少和增加，在中纬度和高纬度地区，分别。原绿球藻的时间趋势是一致的ESM之间，并增加了强度的情况下，聚球藻和picoeukaryotic浮游植物表现出混合的结果。其次，我们评估了与未来预测相关的不确定性来源。与气候情景相关的人为不确定性随着时间的推移而增加，并与原绿球藻有关。环境和生物的不确定性，与ESM和生态位模型，分别代表了最大的部分，但不同的血统。量化不确定性是关键，因为未来分布和丰度的预测差异可能对海洋生态系统功能产生大规模影响。
Climate change is projected to modify the physical and chemical environment of the ocean, but the quantitative impact on the distribution of phytoplankton groups is unclear. Most Earth System Models (ESMs) predict future declines of phytoplankton in low latitude waters, contradicting observations showing that picophytoplankton can reach high abundance in warm waters. Here, we used a historic and three climate scenarios along with quantitative niche models to project Prochlorococcus, Synechococcus, and picoeukaryotic phytoplankton distributions for the year 2100. First, we found global responses with up to 50% and 9% increase for Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus abundances, respectively, and 8% decrease for picoeukaryotic phytoplankton. All groups increased in abundance at low latitude, and Synechococcus and picoeukaryotic phytoplankton showed bands of decreases and increases in mid- and high-latitudes, respectively. Prochlorococcus temporal trends were consistent among ESMs and increased with the strength of the scenario, while Synechococcus and picoeukaryotic phytoplankton showed mixed results. Second, we evaluated sources of uncertainty associated to future projections. The anthropogenic uncertainty, associated to climate scenarios, increased with time and was relevant for Prochlorococcus. The environmental and biological uncertainty, associated to ESMs and niche models, respectively, represented the largest fraction but differed among lineages. Quantifying uncertainties is key because the predicted differences in the future distribution and abundance can have large-scale consequences on ocean ecosystem functioning.