ESTIMATING MARKOVIAN TRANSITION PROBABILITIES FOR BRIDGE DETERIORATION FORECASTING
ESTIMATING MARKOVIAN TRANSITION PROBABILITIES FOR BRIDGE DETERIORATION FORECASTING
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DOI：
10.2208/jsceseee.23.241s
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Yoshitane Tsuda;K. Kaito;Kazuya Aoki;Kiyoshi Kobayashi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yoshitane Tsuda;K. Kaito;Kazuya Aoki;Kiyoshi Kobayashi
本文提出了一种估计马尔可夫转移概率模型的方法来预测桥梁构件的劣化过程。将桥梁构件的劣化状态划分为若干等级，用危险度模型描述其劣化过程。定义了检测时间点之间的固定间隔的劣化状态之间的马尔可夫转移概率，由指数风险模型描述。通过对纽约市钢桥实测数据的分析，验证了本文方法的适用性。
In this paper, a methodology to estimate the Markovian transition probability model is presented to forecast the deterioration process of bridge components. The deterioration states of the bridge components are categorized into several ranks, and their deterioration processes are characterized by hazard models. The Markovian transition probabilities between the deterioration states which are defined for the fixed intervals between the inspection points in time, are described by the exponential hazard models. The applicability of the estimation methodology presented in this paper is investigated by the empirical data set of steel bridges in New York city.