Childhood exposure due to the Chernobyl accident and thyroid cancer risk in contaminated areas of Belarus and Russia
Childhood exposure due to the Chernobyl accident and thyroid cancer risk in contaminated areas of Belarus and Russia
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DOI：
10.1038/sj.bjc.6690545
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发表时间：
1999-07-01
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Paretzke, HG
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jacob, P;Kenigsberg, Y;Paretzke, HG
在白俄罗斯的两个城市和2122个居民点以及俄罗斯联邦布良斯克区的一个城市和607个居民点，对切尔诺贝利事故期间释放的碘-131对儿童和青少年的甲状腺剂量进行了重建。这一地区包括事故发生后两国的两个高污染地点，根据可能增加的甲状腺监测，分析了1991-1995年期间甲状腺癌发病率的数据。采用两种风险分析方法：对单个聚落进行泊松回归分析，对更大区域或亚种群进行蒙特卡罗（MC）计算。两种方法的最佳估计都很一致。泊松回归估计的95%置信区间（ci）比MC结果小得多，这允许由于重建剂量和背景甲状腺癌发病率而产生的额外泊松不确定性。MC分析显示1971-1985年出生队列每单位甲状腺剂量（EARPD）的超额绝对风险为2.1 (95% CI 1.0-4.5) / 10(4)人年Gy。这个点估计值比在一项外部暴露后甲状腺癌风险的综合研究中观察到的值低了两倍。单位甲状腺剂量的过量相对危险度为23 Gy(95% CI 8.6-82)（-1）。在国家之间或城市与农村地区之间没有发现显著差异。在平均甲状腺剂量为0.05 Gy的最低剂量组，患病风险显著升高。风险对暴露年龄和性别的依赖性与外部暴露后的结果一致。
The thyroid dose due to I-131 releases during the Chernobyl accident was reconstructed for children and adolescents in two cities and 2122 settlements in Belarus, and in one city and 607 settlements in the Bryansk district of the Russian Federation. In this area, which covers the two high contamination spots in the two countries following the accident, data on thyroid cancer incidence during the period 1991-1995 were analysed in the light of possible increased thyroid surveillance. Two methods of risk analysis were applied: Poisson regression with results for the single settlements and Monte Carlo (MC) calculations for results in larger areas or sub-populations. Best estimates of both methods agreed well. Poisson regression estimates of 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were considerably smaller than the MC results, which allow for extra-Poisson uncertainties due to reconstructed doses and the background thyroid cancer incidence. The excess absolute risk per unit thyroid dose (EARPD) for the birth cohort 1971-1985 by the MC analysis was 2.1 (95% CI 1.0-4.5) cases per 10(4) person-year Gy. The point estimate is lower by a factor of two than that observed in a pooled study of thyroid cancer risk after external exposures. The excess relative risk per unit thyroid dose was 23 (95% CI 8.6-82) Gy(-1). No significant differences between countries or cities and rural areas were found. In the lowest dose group of the settlements with an average thyroid dose of 0.05 Gy the risk was statistically significantly elevated. Dependencies of risks on age-at-exposure and on gender are consistent with findings after external exposures.