Bayesian analysis of size-dependent overwinter mortality from size-frequency distributions
Bayesian analysis of size-dependent overwinter mortality from size-frequency distributions
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DOI：
10.1890/09-0252.1
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发表时间：
2010-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Mangel, Marc
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Carlson, Stephanie M.;Kottas, Athanasios;Mangel, Marc
了解体型与死亡率之间的关系是生态学中的一个重要问题。我们引入了一种新颖的贝叶斯方法，当唯一可用的数据是在两个连续时间段测量的未标记个体的体型频率分布时，该方法可用于量化这种关系。逆高斯分布为统计模型的开发提供了参数形式，我们使用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法来评估后验分布。我们使用在阿拉斯加湖泊冬季前后收集的三刺刺鱼（Gasterosteus aculeatus）数据来说明该方法。我们的方法使我们能够比较不同年份大小偏倚死亡率的强度。我们讨论的概括包括规模和生存之间更复杂的关系以及时间序列建模。
Understanding the relationship between body size and mortality is an important problem in ecology. We introduce a novel Bayesian method that can be used to quantify this relationship when the only data available are size-frequency distributions of unmarked individuals measured at two successive time periods. The inverse Gaussian distribution provides a parametric form for the statistical model development, and we use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to evaluate posterior distributions. We illustrate the method using data on threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) collected before and after the winter season in an Alaskan lake. Our method allows us to compare the intensity of size-biased mortality in different years. We discuss generalizations that include more complicated relationships between size and survival as well as time-series modeling.