Land-based climate change mitigation measures can affect agricultural markets and food security
Land-based climate change mitigation measures can affect agricultural markets and food security
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DOI：
10.1038/s43016-022-00464-4
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发表时间：
2022-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
23.2
通讯作者：
Takahashi, Kiyoshi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fujimori, Shinichiro;Wu, Wenchao;Takahashi, Kiyoshi
农业、林业和土地使用部门的减排努力对于实现减缓气候变化的目标至关重要，但其对粮食安全的影响仍然知之甚少。本研究利用六个全球农业经济模型，探讨了植树造林、生物能源和非二氧化碳减排在不同情景下如何影响农产品价格和饥饿风险。早期的研究已经注意到与土地相关的减排策略对粮食安全的潜在不利影响，特别是由于粮食价格上涨，但没有区分这些策略在不同条件下的单独影响。使用六个全球农业经济模型，我们展示了在2摄氏度气候稳定情景下，三个因素-非二氧化碳减排，生物能源生产和绿化-可能会改变粮食安全和农业市场条件的程度。结果表明，相对于非二氧化碳排放政策（通常以排放税的形式实施），植树造林（通常在模型中通过对土地碳储量征收碳价格来模拟）可能对粮食安全产生重大影响。与目前的趋势假设基线相比，这些措施分别使2050年面临饥饿风险的人数增加了4190万和2670万。这突出表明，需要更好地协调减排和农业市场管理政策，并在建模中更好地反映土地使用和相关温室气体排放。
Emissions abatement efforts in the agriculture, forestry and land-use sector are vital to achieve climate change mitigation targets, but their effects on food security remain poorly understood. Using six global agroeconomic models, this study explores how afforestation, bioenergy and non-CO2 emissions reductions could impact agricultural prices and the risk of hunger under different scenarios.Earlier studies have noted potential adverse impacts of land-related emissions mitigation strategies on food security, particularly due to food price increases-but without distinguishing these strategies' individual effects under different conditions. Using six global agroeconomic models, we show the extent to which three factors-non-CO2 emissions reduction, bioenergy production and afforestation-may change food security and agricultural market conditions under 2 degrees C climate-stabilization scenarios. Results show that afforestation (often simulated in the models by imposing carbon prices on land carbon stocks) could have a large impact on food security relative to non-CO2 emissions policies (generally implemented as emissions taxes). Respectively, these measures put an additional 41.9 million and 26.7 million people at risk of hunger in 2050 compared with the current trend scenario baseline. This highlights the need for better coordination in emissions reduction and agricultural market management policies as well as better representation of land use and associated greenhouse gas emissions in modelling.