Models predict planned phosphorus load reduction will make Lake Erie more toxic
Models predict planned phosphorus load reduction will make Lake Erie more toxic
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DOI：
10.1126/science.abm6791
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发表时间：
2022-05-27
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Wilhelm, Steven W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hellweger, Ferdi L.;Martin, Robbie M.;Wilhelm, Steven W.
有害蓝藻是一个全球性的环境问题，但我们缺乏可操作的了解与非转基因菌株生态和毒素生产。我们进行了一个大规模的荟萃分析，包括103篇论文，并使用它来开发一个机械的，基于代理的微囊藻生长和微囊藻毒素生产模型。对伊利湖的模拟表明，在2014年托莱多饮用水危机期间观察到的产藻性到非产藻性菌株的演替受到不同的细胞氧化应激缓解策略（微囊藻毒素保护与酶降解）以及这些机制对氮限制的不同敏感性的控制。该模型以及一个更简单的经验模型预测，计划中的磷负荷减少将降低生物量，但使氮和光更容易获得，这将增加毒素产生，有利于产毒细胞，并增加毒素浓度。
Harmful cyanobacteria are a global environmental problem, yet we lack actionable understanding of toxigenic versus nontoxigenic strain ecology and toxin production. We performed a large-scale meta-analysis including 103 papers and used it to develop a mechanistic, agent-based model of Microcystis growth and microcystin production. Simulations for Lake Erie suggest that the observed toxigenic-to-nontoxigenic strain succession during the 2014 Toledo drinking water crisis was controlled by different cellular oxidative stress mitigation strategies (protection by microcystin versus degradation by enzymes) and the different susceptibility of those mechanisms to nitrogen limitation. This model, as well as a simpler empirical one, predicts that the planned phosphorus load reduction will lower biomass but make nitrogen and light more available, which will increase toxin production, favor toxigenic cells, and increase toxin concentrations.