Time-to-build and capacity expansion
Time-to-build and capacity expansion
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DOI：
10.1007/s10479-023-05413-3
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发表时间：
2020-10
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Haejun Jeon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Haejun Jeon
在这项研究中，我们研究了在不确定的建设时间存在的情况下，公司的最优投资时机和产能决策。该公司在经过一段不确定的时间后从投资中获得收入，而后续投资的建造时间预计会比初始投资的时间短，这是因为在实践中学习。我们推导了最优投资策略，并考察了建设时间对投资动态的影响。我们表明，在有完工时间的情况下，初始投资和后续投资都可以比没有滞后的情况下更早进行，特别是在动荡的市场中。这与单一投资的情况形成了鲜明对比，单一投资的时机总是被建设时间推迟。此外，在有建造时间的情况下，后续项目的能力超过初始项目的能力，而在没有滞后的情况下，初始项目的能力占主导地位。然而，每个项目的容量选择相对于滞后的大小是非单调的。我们还表明，即使在投资涉及滞后的情况下，不确定性也会推迟投资，但在建设时间和学习效应的存在下，负面影响会减弱。
In this study, we investigate a firm’s optimal investment timing and capacity decisions in the presence of uncertain time-to-build. The firm raises revenue from the investment after an uncertain amount of time elapses, while the time-to-build of the follow-up investment is expectedly shorter than that of the initial investment due to learning by doing. We derive the optimal investment strategies and examine the impact of time-to-build on the investment dynamics. We show that both the initial and follow-up investment can be made earlier in the presence of time-to-build than they would in the absence of the lags, especially in a volatile market. This is in contrast to the case of a single investment, whose timing is always delayed by the time-to-build. Furthermore, the capacity of the follow-up project dominates that of the initial project in the presence of time-to-build, whereas the latter dominates the former in the absence of lags. The capacity choice of each project, however, is nonmonotone with respect to the size of the lags. We also show that uncertainty delays investment even when the investment involves lags but the negative impact softens in the presence of time-to-build and learning effects.