Validation of Numerical Ground Water Models Used to Guide Decision Making
Validation of Numerical Ground Water Models Used to Guide Decision Making
复制标题
用于指导决策的地下水数值模型的验证
DOI：
10.1111/j.1745-6584.2004.tb02674.x
复制
发表时间：
2004
期刊：
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
A. Hassan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Hassan
许多地下水污染地点严重依赖复杂的流动和输送数值模型来制定关闭计划。这种复杂性产生了对工具和方法的需求，这些工具和方法可以建立对模型预测的信心，并提供证据表明这些预测足以用于决策。建立信任是一个长期的、迭代的过程，作者认为这个过程应该被称为模型验证。模型验证是一个过程，而不是最终结果。也就是说，模型验证过程不能确保模型的可接受预测或质量。相反，它为有缺陷的模型或开发和测试不足的模型提供了重要的保障。如果模型结果成为决策的基础，那么验证过程将提供证据，证明模型对于决策是有效的(不一定是对现实的真实表示)。验证、验证和确认是与地下水数值模型相关的概念，这些概念不仅不代表既定的和普遍接受的做法，而且甚至对应用于模型的术语的含义也没有广泛的共识。本文综述了与地下水流动和运移模拟相关的模型验证研究。回顾和讨论了地下模型验证的定义、文献辩论、以前提出的验证策略以及侧重于地下模型验证的会议和专题讨论会。审查是一般性的，重点是用于制定补救活动和场地关闭决策的特定地点的预测性地下水模型。其目的是为面临地下水系统模型验证的水文地质学家提供一个合理的起点，从而节省大量的时间、精力和成本。这项审查还旨在恢复水文地质界的模型验证问题，并激发研究人员和实践者的想法，开发实用和有效的工具来评估和完善地下水预测模型。
Many sites of ground water contamination rely heavily on complex numerical models of flow and transport to develop closure plans. This complexity has created a need for tools and approaches that can build confidence in model predictions and provide evidence that these predictions are sufficient for decision making. Confidence building is a long‐term, iterative process and the author believes that this process should be termed model validation. Model validation is a process, not an end result. That is, the process of model validation cannot ensure acceptable prediction or quality of the model. Rather, it provides an important safeguard against faulty models or inadequately developed and tested models. If model results become the basis for decision making, then the validation process provides evidence that the model is valid for making decisions (not necessarily a true representation of reality). Validation, verification, and confirmation are concepts associated with ground water numerical models that not only do not represent established and generally accepted practices, but there is not even widespread agreement on the meaning of the terms as applied to models. This paper presents a review of model validation studies that pertain to ground water flow and transport modeling. Definitions, literature debates, previously proposed validation strategies, and conferences and symposia that focused on subsurface model validation are reviewed and discussed. The review is general and focuses on site‐specific, predictive ground water models used for making decisions regarding remediation activities and site closure. The aim is to provide a reasonable starting point for hydrogeologists facing model validation for ground water systems, thus saving a significant amount of time, effort, and cost. This review is also aimed at reviving the issue of model validation in the hydrogeologic community and stimulating the thinking of researchers and practitioners to develop practical and efficient tools for evaluating and refining ground water predictive models.