Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting
Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting
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DOI：
10.1002/2016gl070457
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发表时间：
2016-12-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Yin, J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bakker, P.;Schmittner, A.;Yin, J.
政府间气候变化专门委员会最新的评估报告得出的结论是，大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）可能会大幅减弱，但在 21 世纪不太可能崩溃。然而，该评估很大程度上忽略了格陵兰冰盖（GrIS）的质量损失，缺乏全面的不确定性分析，并且仅限于21世纪。在社区的努力下，使用八个最先进的气候模型对 GrIS 质量损失进行了改进的估计被纳入到百年预测中，并且使用 AMOC 模拟器来提供概率不确定性评估。我们发现 GrIS 融化会影响 AMOC 的预测，尽管它是次要的。到 2090-2100 年，AMOC 减弱 18% [-3%, -34%;在中等温室气体减排情景下，概率为 90%；在持续高排放情况下，概率为 37% [-15%, -65%]。之后，前者稳定下来，但后者在 2290-2300 年继续下降至 -74% [+4%, -100%]，AMOC 崩溃的可能性为 44%。这一结果表明，通过减少二氧化碳排放可以避免 AMOC 崩溃。
The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report concludes that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could weaken substantially but is very unlikely to collapse in the 21st century. However, the assessment largely neglected Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss, lacked a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, and was limited to the 21st century. Here in a community effort, improved estimates of GrIS mass loss are included in multicentennial projections using eight state-of-the-science climate models, and an AMOC emulator is used to provide a probabilistic uncertainty assessment. We find that GrIS melting affects AMOC projections, even though it is of secondary importance. By years 2090-2100, the AMOC weakens by 18% [-3%, -34%; 90% probability] in an intermediate greenhouse-gas mitigation scenario and by 37% [-15%, -65%] under continued high emissions. Afterward, it stabilizes in the former but continues to decline in the latter to -74% [+4%, -100%] by 2290-2300, with a 44% likelihood of an AMOC collapse. This result suggests that an AMOC collapse can be avoided by CO2 mitigation.