Development of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for predicting the impact of storms on high-energy, active-margin coasts
Development of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for predicting the impact of storms on high-energy, active-margin coasts
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DOI：
10.1007/s11069-014-1236-y
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发表时间：
2014-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Foxgrover, Amy C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Barnard, Patrick L.;van Ormondt, Maarten;Foxgrover, Amy C.
海岸风暴模拟系统(COSMOS)应用了一个主要的确定性框架，对大地理范围(100公里)的风暴引发的海岸洪水、侵蚀和悬崖坍塌做出详细的预测(米尺度)。COSMOS是为后播研究、业务应用程序(即短期预报和多天预报)和未来气候情景(即海平面上升+风暴)而开发的，目的是向应急人员和沿海规划者提供关键的风暴危险信息，这些信息可用于加强公共安全、减轻物质损失，并在复杂的沿海环境中更有效地管理和分配资源。该原型系统是为加州海岸开发的，使用全球WaveWatch III波浪模型、基于TOPEX/Poseidon卫星测高的全球潮汐模型以及来自美国国家气象局(运行模式)或全球气候模型(未来气候模式)的大气强迫数据，以确定区域波浪和水位边界条件。这些物理过程使用一系列嵌套的Delft3D-WAVE(SWAN)和Delft3D-Flow(FLOW)模型进行动态缩小，并在海岸连接到紧密间隔的X海滩(极限海滩)跨岸剖面模型和贝叶斯概率悬崖破坏模型。后播测试表明，尽管试点研究区近岸500公里范围内原有海滩形态存在不确定性，但COSMOS有效地确定了在当前和未来一系列海洋强制条件下易受沿海危险影响的海岸离散区段(100米)，因此是业务和未来气候情景规划的有效工具。
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) applies a predominantly deterministic framework to make detailed predictions (meter scale) of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers). CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications (i.e., nowcasts and multiday forecasts), and future climate scenarios (i.e., sea-level rise + storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm hazards information that may be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. The prototype system, developed for the California coast, uses the global WAVEWATCH III wave model, the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimetry-based global tide model, and atmospheric-forcing data from either the US National Weather Service (operational mode) or Global Climate Models (future climate mode), to determine regional wave and water-level boundary conditions. These physical processes are dynamically downscaled using a series of nested Delft3D-WAVE (SWAN) and Delft3D-FLOW (FLOW) models and linked at the coast to tightly spaced XBeach (eXtreme Beach) cross-shore profile models and a Bayesian probabilistic cliff failure model. Hindcast testing demonstrates that, despite uncertainties in preexisting beach morphology over the similar to 500 km alongshore extent of the pilot study area, CoSMoS effectively identifies discrete sections of the coast (100s of meters) that are vulnerable to coastal hazards under a range of current and future oceanographic forcing conditions, and is therefore an effective tool for operational and future climate scenario planning.